916
FXUS61 KILN 240022
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
822 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED
STRIKES OF LIGHTNING IN THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
TOMORROW, WITH A DRY FORECAST FOUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SHORT WAVE WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PIVOT
WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THAT ARE INTERSPERSED THROUGH AN OVERCAST
LOW CLOUD DECK. A BIT THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GREATER
COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES.
A FEW CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A FEW
BULLSEYES OF HEAVIER RAIN. PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE 1.2-1.3
INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS UNIMPRESSIVE. CANNOT DISCOUNT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, BUT IF THAT OCCURS, WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE
ISOLATED.
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL DEVELOP INTO A LARGE CUT
OFF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL CREATE A BLOCK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, IT WILL BE DRY AND ONCE
LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT ON THURSDAY, MAINLY CLEAR -- JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FRIDAY AND PERHAPS A BIT OF DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL, AND AFTER TONIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A MIX OF
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING. SOME CU WILL LINGER ON
THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...08
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