029
FXUS61 KILN 280604
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
204 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE WEEK. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BECOMES ABSORBED BACK INTO THE MEAN H5 FLOW AND GETS
CARRIED OFF. THIS FEATURE WAS ORIGINALLY CAUSING A BLOCKING PATTERN,
KEEPING SIMILAR FORECAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ILN FA THE PAST FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER, AS THE LOW GETS CARRIED OFF, SUBTLE H5 RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER US AND WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. MAJORITY OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE HIGHS BACK IN THE 80S BY
WEDNESDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW A SIGNAL FOR A
WETTER END TO THE WEEK AS AN H5 TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW TRACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS, EVENTUALLY USHERING SOME OF THAT MOISTURE
OUR WAY. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN A SLOWER TREND IN THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP CHANCES, WITH THURSDAY NOW TRENDING DRIER DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE LOW.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY RIVER VALLEY FOG AND ASSOCIATED VSBY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AT KLUK. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERLAND FOG COULD
DEVELOP NEAR CENTRAL OH, SO INCLUDED A TEMPO MVFR VSBY MENTION AT
KCMH/KLCK.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MAINLY JUST
SOME PASSING CIRRUS. COULD SEE MORE OVERLAND FOG DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH COULD IMPACT MORE TERMINALS THAN JUST KLUK.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLARK
AVIATION...CLARK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page