236
FXUS61 KILN 281143
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE WEEK. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BECOMES ABSORBED BACK INTO THE MEAN H5 FLOW AND GETS
CARRIED OFF. THIS FEATURE WAS ORIGINALLY CAUSING A BLOCKING PATTERN,
KEEPING SIMILAR FORECAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ILN FA THE PAST FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER, AS THE LOW GETS CARRIED OFF, SUBTLE H5 RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER US AND WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. MAJORITY OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE HIGHS BACK IN THE 80S BY
WEDNESDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW A SIGNAL FOR A
WETTER END TO THE WEEK AS AN H5 TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW TRACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS, EVENTUALLY USHERING SOME OF THAT MOISTURE
OUR WAY. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN A SLOWER TREND IN THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP CHANCES, WITH THURSDAY NOW TRENDING DRIER DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE LOW.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MAINLY JUST
SOME PASSING CIRRUS.
BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS, HAVE INCLUDED A SHORT
PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT CMH TO START THE PERIOD. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG APPEARS IT MAY BRIEFLY MAKE IT TO THE
TERMINAL BEFORE DAYTIME WARMING BURNS IT OFF BY 14Z OR SO.
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD, WITH SOME OVERLAND FOG DEVELOPING IN
ADDITION TO THE RIVER VALLEY FOG. EASTERN TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO VSBY REDUCTIONS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLARK
AVIATION...CLARK/04
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