431
FXUS61 KILN 141048
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
648 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
GUSTY WINDS.
2) COOLER WEATHER AND FROST LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE
PRIMARY THREAT AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL AS WELL. HEAVY
RAIN WILL OCCUR AND WITH THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION THERE IS SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS AS WELL. GOING INTO THE EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING THERE IS ANOTHER SIGNAL FOR WEST TO EAST ORIENTED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THIS, HOWEVER THERE IS A CONCERN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE BETTER POTENTIAL IF
SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS ON THURSDAY WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS WITH
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE
WHILE PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT, NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD
FROST. SUNDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD
FROST. TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S UNDER GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AFTER THE COOL MORNING SUNDAY
MORNING, TEMPERATURES START TO INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY. CIGS WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES
WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
GUSTY WINDS LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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