983
FXUS61 KILN 141749
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES REGARDING THINKING WITH TODAY'S AND TOMORROW'S ACTIVE
WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGES
1). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW END CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT.
2). ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTRODUCES A LOCALIZED
FLOOD THREAT THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
3). GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A RAPID DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. FROST IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
AN ELONGATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE KENTUCKY BLUEGRASS REGION. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 TO MAYBE 15000 J/KG AND POCKETS OF
0-500 BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS, A LOW THREAT REMAINS IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS, PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE REGION,
ALLOWING PWATS TO REACH 250 TO 300% OF NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SKINNY MUCAPE AND A WEST TO EAST STORM MOTION,
WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND INTRODUCE A
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER THIS EVENING. WHILE MOST AREAS IS THIS REGION WILL RECEIVE
AROUND 0.5 TO 0.75 IN OF RAIN, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 2-3 INCHES WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER REPEATEDLY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
BY THURSDAY, ANOTHER DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRANSITION OUR STALLED COLD FRONT/ STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ACROSS KENTUCKY INTO A WARM FRONT, AND LIFT IT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND PULLING A NEW COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION FROM OUR WEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS NEW FRONT ON
THURSDAY EVENING.
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY LOOKS TO
PRIMARILY IMPACT EAST CENTRAL IN AND WEST CENTRAL OH AND AREAS NORTH.
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO
HANG AROUND 250-300% OF NORMAL. MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE A HALF AN
INCH TO 0.75 IN, BUT CAMS PAINT SOME STRIPES OF 1-2+ INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THIS REGION, INTRODUCING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THURSDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TURNING OUR ATTENTION TO SEVERE... WHILE SBCAPE LOOKS MORE LIMITED
(PERHAPS SOME SPLOTCHY 500-1000 J/KG NEAR THE TRI-STATE), A HANDFUL
OF CAMS PAINT MUCAPE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
AGAIN NEAR THE TRI- STATE. SHEAR LOOKS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE ON
THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN
30 TO 50 KNOTS, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IN AND
WEST CENTRAL OH.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING RIGHT ACROSS INDIANA, THIS
DOES INTRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO THE FORECAST. THE
SUPERCELL PARAMETER LIGHTS UP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IN INTO THE TRI-
STATE FROM VARIOUS CAMS AND THE NADOCAST PAINTS A 3% BULLSEYE TO OUR
WEST (IL/IN BORDER) BUT DOES SCRAPE OUR EASTERN IN/ WESTERN OH
COUNTIES WITH A 1-2%. WHILE A TORNADO THREAT IS QUITE LOW, WE CANNOT
RULE A BRIEF SPIN UP.
WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID... TRICKY FORECAST INDEED. GIVEN THAT THE
WEATHER WILL BE ARRIVING AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS, A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION SETTING UP WILL HELP PINCH OFF SBCAPE. ADDITIONALLY,
THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY DISPLACED FROM THE MORE
ROBUST MUCAPE (BASED ON TODAY'S GUIDANCE).
KEY MESSAGE 3)
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE IT'S INTENSIFICATION, RESULTING IN A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE. THIS INTRODUCES A
ROBUST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH, OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL DROP TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND SUBSTANTIALLY COMPARED TO WHAT WE'VE HAD THIS WEEK. FRIDAY
NIGHT'S LOWS FALL TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT WE
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S AREA-WIDE, INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP TAPERS OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AND WE'LL BE LEFT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CIGS WILL DROP DURING THE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
SITES (KCVG, KLUK, KILN), TO MVFR AND SOME PATCHY IFR. AREAS NORTH
WILL LIKELY FALL TO MVFR. REDUCED CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SIMILARLY, EXPECT MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE
SAME SOUTHERN SITES.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AIENA
AVIATION...AIENA
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