330
FXUS61 KILN 152358
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
758 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BACKED OFF ON FLOOD THREAT FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS
A LOW END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
2) GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A RAPID DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. FROST IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING EAST ALONG IT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOW APPROACHES, SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP/BE ADVECTED UP INTO OUR AREA AHEAD
OF THIS. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. THIS IS WHERE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS SEEMS TO BE THIS EVENING. IF
SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. WITH HIGH PWS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS, BUT THIS THREAT TOO LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED.
BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING, WE WILL HAVE NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT IN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RAPIDLY DROP OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA, TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF/CONTINUE TO DROP
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH READINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE CAA
WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COLD AIR WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT, WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S AND WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHARPENS UP AS IT TRANSLATES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM - A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY DEEPENS
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND ALL ILN/S TAF SITES GET IN THE WARM
SECTOR THIS EVENING. AN AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS EAST
THRU THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW, SOME LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH ONLY A POSSIBLE SMALL WINDOW OF VFR
DEVELOPING PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE, WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO, ADDITIONAL POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF PIVOTING THRU THE
REGION.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...AR
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