889
FXUS61 KILN 160457
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REDUCED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND
DECREASING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. FROST IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK, AND CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
TEMPERATURES ARE AT THEIR WARMEST TO START THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BETWEEN 6 AM AND 1 PM, TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 50S, REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OHIO.
A VERY THIN LINE OF SHOWERS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE JET STREAK
DYNAMICS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT, PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE LIGHT, THIS RAINFALL WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DREARY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS, BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE TROUGH DRIVES A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING, BRINGING A RENEWED PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH FOR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRIVEN DOWN
FURTHER, PUSHING LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION THAT THE WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM, FROST
POTENTIAL IS LOWER FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY A BIT STUBBORN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
OHIO, BUT THEY EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY THE EVENING HOURS. AS NOTED IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS, GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IS A COUPLE
DEGREES LOWER THAN NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. MOST AREAS DROP INTO
THE LOWER 30S WITH UPPER 20S ALSO OCCURRING, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
VALLEYS. A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT, WITHIN THE
NEXT ONE OR TWO FORECAST CYCLES.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY, BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE EACH DAY DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THEY ARE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY, RISING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CUT-OFF OR CLOSED-LOW OFF THE EAST COAST, RAINFALL PROJECTIONS
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK ARE FAIRLY DRY, WITH BELOW NORMAL PWATS
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH LATE THIS EVENING, PUSHING IFR
CIGS OUT OF CENTRAL OHIO. A FEW HOURS OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAILING DURING THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS
QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA, WHICH WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW-END MVFR CIGS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING
BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS. AS THE FRONT PASSES, EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS WITH UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THEN, FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON, WIND GUSTS ARE IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST,
WITH ANOTHER WIND SHIFT FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TO
NORTH. RENEWED WIND GUSTS IN 25-30 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BEGINS TO
DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR
CENTRAL OHIO.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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