713
FXUS63 KIWX 080916
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
416 AM EST WED JAN 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL COLD JANUARY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 10 DAYS.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND
WILL THEN SPREAD WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY NORTH OF US 30. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
AND THEN AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2025
AS OF 02Z THIS EVENING, REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC BEGINNING TO SHOW
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE DOMINANT BAND BEGINNING TO FORM
OFFSHORE FROM KMKG TO KBIV. SFC OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
WEAK LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS, WHICH
COUPLED WITH SHARPENING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, SHOULD ALLOW
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN/WESTERN BERRIEN COUNTY OVERNIGHT. SOME IMPACTS APPEAR
LIKELY BUT MOISTURE QUALITY LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
THIS EVENT, PARTICULARLY BY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN
SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD TEND TO BACK A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR GREATER CHANCE OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED ORIENTATION OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL
APPEARS REASONABLE WITH GREATER TOTALS ACROSS NORTHERN BERRIEN
COUNTY (~1-3"), AND LESSER AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHERN LAKE EFFECT
AREAS WHICH MAY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME WITH PRIMARY CONCERN ON SOME POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE
WED AM COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED JAN 8 2025
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN
CANADA COAST. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPLYING THE LIFTING MECHANISM AND
A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WILL HELP TO PUSH ANY DEVELOPING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH. DID OPT TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS AS IT APPEARS THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SHEAR THE LES BANDS OFF AND PUSH ANY OF THE SHOWERS
FURTHER EASTWARD WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE ACCUMULATIONS THAT
OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE. DID NOT GO ANY LOWER BECAUSE A
FEW BANDS COULD POTENTIALLY STILL ARRIVE INLAND AND FOR A SHORT
TIME QUICKLY ACCUMULATE. THINKING THAT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MI COUNTIES AND PERHAPS FURTHER SOUTH INTO ST.
JOSEPH, ELKHART, AND LAGRANGE COUNTIES IN IN IS NOW THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME TODAY AND A LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNT STILL NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE, MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE FLURRIES
WITH A TRACE TO AROUND 1 INCH. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF STATE ROUTE 30.
A FEW REMAINING LIGHT LES SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OUT
THURSDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION BRINGING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WHICH WILL
ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THE LES MACHINE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOWFALL, BUT AS THE
BETTER INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER KY/TN SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. WITH 1-2 INCHES A GOOD BET ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BIT
MORE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ANY LES ENHANCEMENT.
THE COMMON THEME THROUGH AND BEYOND THE FORECAST WILL BE LIGHT
LES SHOWERS AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. HOWEVER, THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER SLUG OF ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS AND LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS AS EVEN LIGHT BREEZES WILL MAKE FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST WED JAN 8 2025
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR - ACCORDING TO NOAA COASTWATCH, THE 2ND WARMEST IN 30
YEARS (ONLY FLANKED BY LAST YEAR). WATER TEMPS >6C OVER MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS; HOWEVER, INVERSION HEIGHTS AND EQLS
JUST NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN NOTABLE
SHEAR PER RADAR RETURNS, HAVE GONE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC AT
SBN WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE TAF PERIOD WILL RETAIN MVFR CONDITIONS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...MARSILI
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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