562
FXUS63 KIWX 091738
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1238 PM EST THU JAN 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TAPER OFF
THIS MORNING BEFORE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TODAY.
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW (1-3") FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
DURING THE PM HOURS. SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- CONTINUED NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
- ARCTIC AIR AND CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SUB-ZERO WIND
CHILLS ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST THU JAN 9 2025
A FEW REMAINING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TODAY AS
RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE ARRIVES. BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SEE
A DEEP COLD TROUGH ORIGINATING OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND DROPPING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE TWO POCKETS OF ENERGY ONE OVER THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST AND A SECONDARY SOUTHERN POCKET OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN POCKET WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AND WILL LEAD TO WINTER STORM DEVELOPMENT WELL SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN AR/MS/GA AND SOUTHERN TN WHILE FURTHER NORTH FOR OUR
AREA WE WILL SEE LESS MOISTURE AND LOOKING AT ABOUT 1-3 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN DUE TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES QUICKLY EASTWARD. A FEW RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT
ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGING AGAIN PUSHES IN ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PUSHES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS AND BEYOND. A BRIEF "WARM- UP" WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S ON SUNDAY WITH THAT WEAK DISTURBANCE BEFORE AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. PERIODS OF LIGHT LES
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS INTO THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE TEENS. LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LOCATIONS EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH LAKE MODIFIED AIR HELPING TO SLIGHTLY TAME THE COLD.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WILL MAKE FOR VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS WITH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND MINUS 10 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST THU JAN 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AT BOTH
SITES PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL
WORK WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A LOT OF DRY AIR WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME, WITH GREATEST FLIGHT IMPACTS POSSIBLY NOT
OCCURRING AT KSBN UNTIL 14Z OR AFTER. HAVE INTRODUCED A MVFR
GROUP FOR CIGS AND VSBY AT KSBN, BUT ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE LIKELY
IN COMING TAFS WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS ONCE FULL
SATURATION OCCURS (MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO 18Z). AT KFWA, DRY AIR
MAY WIN OUT UNTIL AFTER 21Z FRI WITH EVEN SOME HINTS THAT IT MAY
TAKE TO 00Z SAT. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE TAF DRY WITH AN
INTRODUCTION TO VFR CIGS STARTING AT 14Z.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...FISHER
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