664
FXUS63 KIWX 091915
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
215 PM EST THU JAN 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW (2-4") FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.
- CONTINUED NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
- ARCTIC AIR AND CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SUB-ZERO WIND
CHILLS ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM EST THU JAN 9 2025
A DEEP, VERY ELONGATED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
TODAY WILL BRING MORE SNOW INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TWO
POCKETS OF ENERGY. ONE OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST AND A MORE
MOIST DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
INITIALLY BE LIMITED FOR OUR REGION WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY
IN PLACE, AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.
THEREFORE, IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE LOWER
LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP AND ACCUMULATING SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND.
WESTERN AREAS COULD START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. THE BULK OF THE
SNOW WILL ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING ONLY 2 TO 3 INCHES. LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD
BRING AROUND 4 INCHES TO BERRIEN COUNTY, MICHIGAN. THE TROUGH
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN. YET IT WILL
REMAIN COLD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S.
THE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT WARMING ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES RISE
TO AROUND 30 UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE
OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL THEN
DOMINATE INTO TUESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. THERE WILL BE A MINOR
WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST THU JAN 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AT BOTH
SITES PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL
WORK WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A LOT OF DRY AIR WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME, WITH GREATEST FLIGHT IMPACTS POSSIBLY NOT
OCCURRING AT KSBN UNTIL 14Z OR AFTER. HAVE INTRODUCED A MVFR
GROUP FOR CIGS AND VSBY AT KSBN, BUT ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE LIKELY
IN COMING TAFS WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS ONCE FULL
SATURATION OCCURS (MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO 18Z). AT KFWA, DRY AIR
MAY WIN OUT UNTIL AFTER 21Z FRI WITH EVEN SOME HINTS THAT IT MAY
TAKE TO 00Z SAT. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE TAF DRY WITH AN
INTRODUCTION TO VFR CIGS STARTING AT 14Z.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COBB
AVIATION...FISHER
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