283
FXUS63 KIWX 100829
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
329 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW ARRIVES FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING MID MORNING. 2 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED. THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- VERY COLD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS AND
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2025
THE WINTER WEATHER FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WAS A BYPRODUCT OF NEIGHBORING OFFICES HOISTING ADVISORIES.
THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL NOT BE IMPACTED. HOWEVER, ANTICIPATE A SLOW
EVENING COMMUTE. SNOW BEGINS MID MORNING TOWARD MICHIANA AND ENDS
AFTER THE EVENING RUSH. TOWARD NORTHWEST OHIO, SNOW BEGINS ON EITHER
SIDE OF NOON, TAPERING OFF NEAR MIDNIGHT.
A POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH IS EXITING THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WHILE A
SECOND, DEEPER, TROUGH IS EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS. UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SPILLING OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ALLOWING RADAR RETURNS TO BLOSSOM THERE. THE 500-MB JET IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR SNOW TODAY. DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE-DIGITS NEED TO BE OVERCOME. AMID
THIS BUCKED JET STREAM, MOISTURE ADVECTION IS POSITIVE AS NOTED
BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID-TO- UPPER TEENS FROM CHICAGO SOUTHWARD.
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENESIS BY
LATE MORNING WHICH WILL WORK TO OVERCOME WHAT SHALLOW WEDGE OF
DRY AIR REMAINS.
JUST AS THIS SNOW TAPERS OFF, THE LAGGING DAKOTAS TROUGH RACES
THROUGH AFTER SUNSET AND PROVIDES ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
BECAUSE OF ITS SWIFT FORWARD PACE, THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WILL LAKE EFFECT. WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE
WEST AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
BEYOND THIS BUSY 24 HOUR PERIOD, AN ACTIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN BRING
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE REGION. CLIPPER SYSTEMS, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND ARCTIC AIR ARE ALL EXPECTED IN THE DAYS AHEAD. FIRST,
FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE THERMAL
PROFILE OVERALL IS SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW, DEEP SATURATION IS SLOW TO
OCCUR. AS A RESULT, THE LOW-LEVEL SATURATES BELOW THE DGZ FAVORING
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THROUGH THE DAY, A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
THEN, AN ARCTIC FRONT RACES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FOLLOWED BY BITTER COLD.
WIND CHILLS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW ZERO.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2025
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE CURRENTLY IS THE HARBINGER FOR
MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN LATER TODAY
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH 2-3" OF
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS STORM. CIGS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO
MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AND LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
BY THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF SITES. PERIODS OF VSBY DROPPING
BELOW 1SM THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/BURSTS.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING HOWEVER MVFR IN RESIDUAL
LOWERED CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SATURDAY FOR INZ005>009-
012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
216.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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