664
FXUS63 KIWX 110834
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
334 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
- VERY COLD BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH BELOW-
ZERO WIND CHILLS.
- PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN THE COMING
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2025
A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH THIS HOUR, BRINGING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WELL INLAND. A MORE DOMINANT LES BAND IS
NOTED NORTH OF SOUTH HAVEN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW, THE SOUTH HAVEN
BAND IS FAVORED TO BECOME DOMINANT PER CAMS AS LOW-LEVEL WIND BACKS
TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. WESTERLY WIND IS ALREADY NOTED OVER
CHICAGOLAND. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10AM EST
FOR BERRIEN, CASS, AND ST. JOSEPH IN MICHIGAN TO ACCOUNT FOR LES
(DIDN'T WANT TO GIVE THE FALSE IMPRESSION OF AN "ALL CLEAR" BY
EXPIRING THE ADVISORY AS SCHEDULED). BECAUSE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW,
LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY.
A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA IS OUR NEXT WEATHER-MAKER ARRIVING
SUNDAY. GOOD NEWS SINCE 24 HOURS AGO IS THAT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
RISK LOOKS TO BE DIMINISHING, BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW WITH A COUPLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
BEHIND THE SURFACE REFLECTION. AS THIS TROUGH DROPS INTO THE
MIDWEST, WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 500-MB WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES AND OUGHT TO RESULT IN A BLOSSOMING PRECIPITATION
SHIELD DURING THE DAY. DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SNOW IS THE
FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS, THANKS TO THE WINTER CHILL THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE (WE'VE BEEN BELOW FREEZING FOR 8 DAYS NOW). THE
LOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. NOT ONLY
WILL THIS LOW BRING A BURST OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA, BUT
INCREASING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW-20S.
A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT DROPS IN TUESDAY WITH MORE FAVORABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW. THUS, TURNING EVEN COLDER WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE IN BERRIEN
COUNTY, MORNING LOWS WILL BE COLDEST TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND
THURSDAY WHEN SINGLE-DIGITS ARE EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY MORNING, LOWS
NEAR 0 COULD BE REALIZED ALONG THE US 24 CORRIDOR. WIND CHILLS WILL
BE NEAR -10 DEGREES DURING THIS COLD SNAP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2025
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z, WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY
IMPROVING OVERNIGHT. SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
INTO THE MORNING PERIOD. ALSO A FEW FLURRIES TODAY WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KSBN AND KFWA, BUT NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AND
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS LOW. WESTERLY WINDS UP
TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ078-079-177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...
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