779
FXUS63 KIWX 130757
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
257 AM EST MON JAN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND COLD TODAY. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY NEAR 20.
- VERY COLD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
- PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST MON JAN 13 2025
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EASING. BUT, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT NEVER FULLY RELAXES SUCH THAT WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUTSIDE
OF THE WESTERLY LAKE EFFECT BELT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS. LAKE EFFECT IS ONGOING JUST NORTH OF BERRIEN
COUNTY WHERE THE LAKE FETCH IS A LITTLE BETTER. DRY AIR AND
STIFF WEST WIND TODAY WILL LIMIT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATION TO
LESS THAN 1 INCH. SNOW SHOWERS COULD SPILL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
IN TOLL ROAD.
UPSTREAM, THE UPPER-LOW SCHEDULE TO PROVIDE A REINFORCING BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR IS DIGGING INTO MINNESOTA. THIS ARRIVES BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY BRINGING A QUICK DOSE OF SYNOPTIC SNOW TO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND REINVIGORATES LAKE EFFECT. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FAVORS NO-SNOW WITH THE INCOMING CLIPPER WHILE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS IT'S WORTHWHILE TO RETAIN A SNOW
MENTION TUESDAY. BUT, BASED ON THE LATEST TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF INDIANA, I HAVE REDUCED POPS LOCALLY. LAKE
EFFECT WILL REJUVENATE AS THIS UPPER-LOW AND ARCTIC FRONT MOVE
THROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN UNDERCUT BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS MENTIONED IN THIS SPACE, WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS OF 0 TO 10
BELOW OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
WE'LL THAW OUT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER
30S THANKS TO A BUILDING SOUTHEAST RIDGE. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
OCCURS DURING THIS TIME, CERTAINLY MAKING FOR SLOPPY CONDITIONS
WHERE SNOWPACK REMAINS. BITTER COLD AGAIN STARTING SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS SOME ABSOLUTELY FRIGID 850MB TEMPERATURES;
8 TO 10C COLDER THAN THIS FIRST ARCTIC BLAST. ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS INDICATE THERE IS A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF SINGLE-
DIGIT TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EST MON JAN 13 2025
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MON
BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CATS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
REMAIN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 KTS SUSTAINED CONTINUES POST COLD FRONT, A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A FEW LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME BUT WILL BE
TEMPORARY AND SHOULD REMAIN OPERATIONALLY INSIGNIFICANT, LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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