860
FXUS63 KIWX 141910
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
210 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE REDUCED VISIBILITIES,
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
- WIND CHILLS DROP TO NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW (60%) MAY CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL
THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW
TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD THAT SHOULD CLEAR
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES BY ~21Z. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT
GUSTY NW WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE TRAVEL HEADACHES FOR THE PM COMMUTE. DRY
ARCTIC AIR WITH UPSTREAM OBS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WILL
LIMIT INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LES COVERAGE/INTENSITY THEN INTO TONIGHT
WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMS/IMPACTS NEAR LAKE MI. COLD AIR WRAPS IN
UNDER THE LAKE PLUME OTHERWISE TONIGHT AND WED AM WITH WIND CHILLS
AS COLD AS -10F.
THE NEXT QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WAA
SURGE UNDER FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD SUPPORT A
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THIS TIME WHICH COULD IMPACT THE THU AM
COMMUTE. BRIEF RIDGING THEN FOLLOWS IN ALOFT ALOFT IN WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM, WITH FRIDAY MILDER WITH ABOVE FREEZING HIGHS.
A SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, WHILE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY STARTS TO WORK INTO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL US. THIS WILL SEND A FRONTAL WAVE THROUGH
DURING THIS TIME WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES, THOUGH DETAILS
(QPF/PTYPE) ARE LACKING AT THIS FORECAST RANGE GIVEN DIFFERENCES
IN THE DEGREE OF PHASING.
RENEWED DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING LOOKS TO RETURN LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON GIVEN INCREASING
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR -25C OR COLDER 850 MB AIR WRAPPING IN
MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH HEADLINE WORTHY COLD ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
MAIN AREA OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS LEFT BOTH TAF
SITES WITH FOCUS NOW ON THE ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING THROUGH. A
BAND OF ENHANCED RETURNS DID DROP KSBN BRIEFLY TO 1/4SM WITH
STRONGER, MORE CELLULAR IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND (STILL BRIEFLY
DROPPING TO 1/4 TO 1/2SM). THE GREATEST VSBY IMPACTS LOOK TO BE
CLEAR OF KSBN BY THE START OF THE VALID TIME, SO HAVE NOT
MENTIONED THE LOWER VSBYS OR CIGS AND WENT MORE OFF UPSTREAM
TRENDS. LAKE EFFECT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS TO BRING PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND HIGHLY VARIABLE CIGS. NO WAY TO CAPTURE
THESE VARIATIONS IN THE TAFS. AT KFWA THE BAND HAS SHOWN A BIT
OF A WEAKENING TREND AND SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SE THESE
WILL SURVIVE. HAVE WENT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN A TEMPO TO HANDLE
BOTH FEATURES AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS.
WHILE SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT, A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED IN
FROM WISCONSIN, LIMITED OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS, BUT COULD RESULT
IN SOME MINOR VSBY IMPACTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT KSBN. WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED IF TRENDS POINT THIS WAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER
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