659
FXUS63 KIWX 150546
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1246 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- WIND CHILLS TO NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW (60%) MAY CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL
THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW
TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD THAT SHOULD CLEAR
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES BY ~21Z. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT
GUSTY NW WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE TRAVEL HEADACHES FOR THE PM COMMUTE. DRY
ARCTIC AIR WITH UPSTREAM OBS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WILL
LIMIT INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LES COVERAGE/INTENSITY THEN INTO TONIGHT
WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMS/IMPACTS NEAR LAKE MI. COLD AIR WRAPS IN
UNDER THE LAKE PLUME OTHERWISE TONIGHT AND WED AM WITH WIND CHILLS
AS COLD AS -10F.
THE NEXT QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WAA
SURGE UNDER FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD SUPPORT A
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THIS TIME WHICH COULD IMPACT THE THU AM
COMMUTE. BRIEF RIDGING THEN FOLLOWS IN ALOFT IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM,
WITH FRIDAY MILDER WITH ABOVE FREEZING HIGHS.
A SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WHILE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY STARTS TO WORK INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL SEND A FRONTAL WAVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME
WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES, THOUGH DETAILS (QPF/PTYPE) ARE LACKING
AT THIS FORECAST RANGE GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE OF PHASING.
RENEWED DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING LOOKS TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON GIVEN INCREASING ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR -
25C OR COLDER 850 MB AIR WRAPPING IN MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH HEADLINE
WORTHY COLD ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND CRASHING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AT KSBN IN THE
06-07Z TIMEFRAME. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BULK OF CIGS REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS. A STRONG 1035 MB ANTICYCLONE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN SFC WINDS BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE TIGHTENING GRADIENT, MIXING SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW KEEPING WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC GUSTS MAY INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF
THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTURE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE AND
APPROACH OF SFC TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI
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