362
FXUS63 KIWX 160152
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
852 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEXT ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
IN STORE FOR SUNDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES.
- TURNING MUCH COLDER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BRING BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS TO
THE AREA.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 843 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
ADJUSTED THE TIME OF THE ADVISORY AND MOVED SOME COUNTIES AROUND
TO TRY TO FIT THE LATEST THINKING OF IMPACTS. WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, IT HAS
BECOME OBVIOUS THAT THE SOUTHERN US CONVECTION IS ROBBING OUR
MOISTURE AND HAS STUNTED THE ORIGINAL THINKING OF NORTHERN ZONES
RECEIVING PRECIPITATION FIRST. FURTHERMORE, DEW POINTS ARE
DROPPING AND CEILINGS ARE RISING IN LAKE MI ADJACENT COUNTIES INDICATING
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION. DELAYED THE START TIME OF THIS AREA UNTIL 13Z AS
THAT SEEMS LIKE A HAPPY MEDIUM OF A FIRST ESTIMATE FOR INITIAL
ARRIVAL OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND SUNDAY MORNING. INITIAL
RAINFALL ARRIVING IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-24 ARE EXPECTED
WETBULB TO SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE COULD STILL BE
AN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THAT COULD CREATE A GLAZE OF ICE
ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW, BUT SNOW SHOULD
OVERWHELM THAT AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN OVERNIGHT. MODELS STILL
INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY TRAVERSE US-24 FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 6Z AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING IF YOU
COME ACROSS THIS AREA OF MODERATE SNOW OR ANY GLAZING OF ICE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MADE IT ALL THE WAY INTO MI,
RESULTING IN SOME CHALLENGES FOR HOW FAST THE ANTICIPATED
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO SNOW TONIGHT. IN ADDITION,
CONCERNS EXIST AS TO HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE NW DOWNWARD QPF TRENDS REFLECTING THIS AS CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN INTERFERE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH SEVERAL MODELS TRENDING EITHER TO A DELAYED ONSET (3 TO 6Z)
OR POSSIBLE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP FAR NW THIS EVENING. OVERALL
SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT MAY ONLY END UP AN INCH OR 2 AT
BEST NW. EVEN GREATER CONCERNS EXIST FURTHER SE WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S (34 TO 37) ALL THE WAY TO LIMA. TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
WELL SOUTHEAST OF US AND THE 700 MB LOW TRACKING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF
SNOW. IN ADDITION EVERY HOUR OF RAIN THAT OCCURS FURTHER REDUCED
OVERALL QPF FOR SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE CONCERNS ARE BY NO MEANS A
SLAM DUNK AND HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR, WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 3Z NW HALF AND 6Z
SE HALF. NOT EVERYONE MAY SEE IMPACTS IN THESE WINDOWS WITH FAR
SE AREAS (PORTLAND TO LIMA) POSSIBLY NOT SEEING A SWITCH TILL
AFTER 9Z.
COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN SUNDAY WITH A FAVORABLE NW
FETCH AND DECENT OMEGA YIELDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, WHICH MAY EXTEND WELL
INLAND FOR A PERIOD, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, RESULTING IN
AT LEAST DRIFTING SNOW AND SOME BLOWING IN AREAS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR, BUT FOR NOW HANDLING WITH THE
ADVISORY LASTING THROUGH 00Z MON ACROSS THE AREA.
AFTER SUNDAY, FORECAST IS OVERALL MUCH QUIETER WITH SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS/CLOUDS AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BRIEFLY PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF A DEEPER UPPER LOW THAT PASSES OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE, BUT THE COLDEST SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS (SLIGHTLY WARMER CLOSER TO LAKE MI UNDER ANY
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS) THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MORNING WIND CHILLS
OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD HOLD SHY OF ADVISORY
LEVEL.
AS THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE ARRIVES, CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL INCREASE, BUT AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
WITH THE GULF CUT OFF. BEHIND THE LOW , SOME SLOW MODERATING IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED (STILL BELOW NORMAL).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
FOR FWA, IFR AND LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM
WITH THE OCCASIONAL VLIFR CONDITION POSSIBLE IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE PERIOD. SOME MORE MODERATE INTENSITY SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE EITHER SIDE OF 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO LOWER INTO LIFR. MODERATION INTO MVFR LIKELY WILL TAKE
UNTIL MIDDAY TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TAKES OVER INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DROPS INTO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY PART
OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL BECOME A PROBLEM A FEW HOURS INTO THE PERIOD UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO OPPOSITE FACTORS, WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW GETS UNDERWAY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON, A DROP INTO IFR VISBY AND CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
BANDS MOVE THROUGH THE AIRPORT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY, REACHING 30 TO 40 KTS AT TIMES.
NORTH WINDS BACK NORTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST
/6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR INZ005-012>014-020-103-104-116-203-
204.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR INZ006>009-
015-017-018-022>027-032>034-216.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
MIZ078>080-177-277.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ081.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-
046.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-
046.
UPDATE...ROLLER
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...ROLLER
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