406
FXUS63 KIWX 160705
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
205 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24 THIS MORNING. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THEN RAMP UP IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. AREA-WIDE 1-3" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM EST TONIGHT.
- NORTHWEST WINDS START TO INCREASE BY DAYBREAK AND BE SUSTAINED AROUND
20-25 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL
CAUSE BLOWING SNOW IN PLACES WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE
GROUND, ESPECIALLY IN RURAL, OPEN AREAS AND ON N-S ORIENTED
ROADS.
- TEMPERATURES PLUMMET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL
BE A VERY COLD START TO THE WORK WEEK ON MONDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. WIND
CHILLS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ABOVE ZERO AND WILL BE AS
COLD AS 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
- COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR PADUCAH, KY WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING INTO EASTERN OHIO. THE TRACK OF THIS
SURFACE LOW IS FURTHER WEST (BY ABOUT 50 TO 100 MILES) THAN WHAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ABOUT 12-24 HOURS AGO, WHICH HAS LED TO SOME
FORECAST CHANGES. WHILE HEAVY SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING, THE SNOWFALL FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWN IN REGARDS TO SNOW
AMOUNTS DUE TO THE SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SYNOPTICALLY, THIS IS A DECENT SETUP FOR SNOWFALL, BUT MOISTURE IS
GREATLY LACKING. A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY HAS SUPPRESSED A LOT OF THE
MOISTURE THAT WOULD BE NEEDED TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW. NEVERTHELESS,
SOME SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE US 24 CORRIDOR. ONCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TRENDS DOWN
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO STREAM UP INTO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY
DROPPING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AT THIS HOUR, WITH A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW OCCURRING RIGHT NOW IN FORT WAYNE.
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AREA-WIDE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR 1-3" SNOW TO FALL ALONG THE US 24 CORRIDOR.
SNOW IS LIKELY TO FALL ALONG THE US 24 CORRIDOR BEFORE 10 AM, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS. BE CAUTIOUS IF YOU MUST BE OUT ON THE
ROADS LATER THIS MORNING!
AFTER THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA, LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST OHIO AROUND MIDDAY. FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR LAKE
EFFECT INCLUDES NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE,
DELTA-TS OF -15C, AND NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES. BECAUSE OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LAKE MICHIGAN-SUPERIOR
CONNECTION, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD EXTEND FAIRLY FAR
INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE AFTERNOON. IN ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, WATCH OUT FOR QUICKLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AND SNOW- COVERED ROADS. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS
TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN, A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA AND RESULT IN
VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS START
TO INCREASE BY DAYBREAK AND BE SUSTAINED AROUND 20-25 MPH BY THE
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW IN
PLACES WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND, ESPECIALLY IN RURAL,
OPEN AREAS AND ON N-S ORIENTED ROADS. EXPECT SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES (EITHER DUE TO FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW) AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 7 PM EST
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HAZARDS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO WEST, WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND IS ANTICIPATED TO STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS AND
EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL FROM THE
20S TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AS COLD AS -5 TO -15 DEGREES, WITH WIND
CHILLS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS THROUGH FRIDAY. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS COINCIDING WITH A SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS SYSTEM TRACKS, SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN OUR
AREA, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES FINALLY
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
GOOD NEWS IS THINGS SHOULD GET MUCH LESS COMPLICATED DURING THIS
TAF PERIOD WITH KFWA THE REMAINING SITE TO STILL HAVE RAIN
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WE WILL SEE THE
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW CHANCES TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH SNOWFALL WE WILL ACTUALLY
SEE WITH OUR MOISTURE INFLUX WEAK DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION AND
RAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ESSENTIALLY ROBBING US OF
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IF WE CAN SEE THINGS SETTLE DOWN THERE
WE MAY SEE MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN STREAM NORTHWARD BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT THAT WE GET IT BEFORE THE ENERGY TRANSLATES EASTWARD.
ATTM DID LEAVE IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW FOR BOTH SITES AFTER 00Z
SUN. CIGS WILL ALSO BE MUCH LOWER FOR KFWA WITH CIGS DOWN TO
AROUND 600 FEET AT TIMES AFTER 10Z SUN AS THERE IS A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY PRESENT, JUST LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. SO PERIODS OF LIFR FOR KFWA WHILE DRIER AIRMASS
FURTHER NORTHWEST ALLOWS FOR MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR WITH ANY
HEAVIER LES SHOWERS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ005-012>014-
020-103-104-116-203-204.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
INZ006>009-015-017-018-022>027-032>034-216.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR MIZ078>080-177-277.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-
046.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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