661
FXUS63 KIWX 170539
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1239 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH INTO EARLY EVENING.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS WILL PERSIST CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
- MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS. MORNING WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO MAYBE 15 BELOW ZERO ARE
POSSIBLE.
- A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY RENEWED LAKE
EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
DOMINANT LES BAND HAS BEEN EFFICIENT AT DROPPING VSBYS TO 1/4SM OR
LESS ACROSS LAPORTE COUNTY MUCH OF THE MORNING. CONVERGENCE WAS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SOME WITH AN INCREASING W AND NW FLOW PUSHING
THE BAND OFF THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR 2. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE INTENSE BAND WORKING INLAND FOR A PERIOD AND EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE SOME BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING. BEHIND IT, INCREASING LIFT
WITH THE ANOTHER TROUGH WAS ALLOWING FOR A LARGER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
(MINIMAL VSBY REDUCTIONS) TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA INTO EARLY EVENING.
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH, GREATEST
ALONG THE LAKESHORE AREAS. WHILE OVERALL ADDITIONAL IMPACTS MAY END
UP MINIMAL WILL LEAVE HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z.
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO HELP CALM WINDS SOMEWHAT (AT LEAST
THE GUSTY NATURE). ALTHOUGH FAVORABLE DELTA TS IN THE LOW 20S WILL
PERSIST INTO MONDAY, INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND
DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY INTO BERRIEN,
CASS AND POSSIBLY ST JOE MI COUNTIES. WILL DEFER A POSSIBLE
EXTENSION IN THESE COUNTIES TO THE EVENING CREW TO SEE HOW THE
OVERALL SETUP ACTUALLY UNFOLDS. AWAY FROM THE LAKE THE FRESH
SNOWPACK AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH AREAS UNDER THE CLOUDS IN THE TEENS. WIND CHILLS WILL
HEAD INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY, BUT REMAIN SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BEYOND MONDAY, MAIN STORIES WILL REMAIN THE CONTINUED WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ARRIVAL OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT WILL TAKE
SHAPE OUT OF THE ELONGATED WEST TO EAST TROUGH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TRACKING THE
CENTER OF THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON
MAYBE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW PASSING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN THE LACK OF OVERALL MOISTURE ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND WARRANT LITTLE MORE THAN THE CHC POPS FOR
NOW. A LAKE RESPONSE MAY OCCUR WED NIGHT INTO THURS AS A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND INCREASING DELTA TS SWING THROUGH. TOO FAR
OUT TO GET FANCY WITH THAT AS FINAL TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE
HOW THAT EVOLVES. A SLOW TREND BACK TOWARDS FREEZING WILL START
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
CONTINUED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE IS PROVIDING FOR LES SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN DOWNWIND
AREAS INCLUDING KFWA. KSBN IS JUST ON THE WESTERN OUTSKIRTS OF
SOME OF THE BANDS WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN, HOWEVER, A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
THERE. KFWA MAY ALSO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPSTREAM STEEL FACTORY OUTPUT AS WE
HAVE SEEN SIMILAR THIS EVENING FROM GARY PLANTS WHICH MAY KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN PLAY. BUT IF SHOWER ACTIVITY
DECREASES WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN WITH PERHAPS
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN -SHSN. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS UP TO
25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z MON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ078-079-177-277.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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