296
FXUS63 KIWX 220438
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1138 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- POTENTIAL (20-40%) FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH BETTER CHANCES (50%) FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
A ~1040 MB SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST FROM MISSOURI TO THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND UNDER LOWER AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. RETURN
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST ON THE BACKSIDE
THIS SFC RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND. ONE LAST COLD NIGHT TONIGHT THOUGH GIVEN OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOW COVER. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TAKE AIM ON THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH TIMES OF SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OTHERWISE,
PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SATURATED ABOVE 700
MB.
AN ACTIVE JET STREAM WILL SEND A SERIES OF FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST PERTURBATION IN THIS WAVE TRAIN LOOKS TO TAKE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LIGHT WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP BYPASSING NORTH. THIS NORTHERLY
TRACK AND WAA REGIME SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S ON
MONDAY. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES (20-40%) FOR LIGHT RAIN FOLLOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER REGARDING THE DEPTH/ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
WAVE...HENCE THE LOWER POPS. RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS THE STORY
OTHERWISE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THURSDAY PERIODS AS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC REFLECTION TRACK THROUGH. THE
MODEL SPREAD OF THIS AMPLIFYING SYSTEM IS SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS RANGE
HOWEVER WITH POPS GENERALLY CAPPED IN THE 40-50% RANGE. GOOD
AGREEMENT HOWEVER ON RAIN AS THE PRIMARY PTYPE, POSSIBLY ENDING AS
SOME WET SNOW. A TREND TOWARD COOLER, NEAR NORMAL, TEMPS THEREAFTER
WITH UPPER TROUGHING SETTLING IN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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