704
FXUS63 KIWX 270334
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1134 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE (20-30%) OF
SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF US 30.
- NOTABLY WARMER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
- SHARPLY COLDER MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY GIVES WAY TO AN INCOMING, WEAK LOW EMERGING FROM
MONTANA. THIS RACES SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG AN 850-MB
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRIMARILY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF US 30 THURSDAY. NOT
ONLY IS STEERING FLOW AT PLAY, BUT LINGERING LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AS
WELL. OTHERWISE, WITH CONTINUED 500-MB HEIGHT RISES AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE MORE WARM INTO THE MID-50S.
ACTIVE WEATHER ABOUNDS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
HOURS. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOCALLY
IS WANING. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY'S SHOWER
CHANCE REBOUNDS NORTHWARD FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH KICKING OUT
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS
ENHANCES WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION BACK INTO OUR AREA
RESULTING IN RENEWED OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS (THOUGH INSTABILITY IS MEAGER). IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S. THE POSSIBLE
FAILURE POINT COULD BE IF THE WARM FRONT GETS HUNG-UP SOUTH OF THE
MICHIGAN STATELINE. GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO OVER ADVECT THESE
WARM FRONTS ESPECIALLY WITH SOME LINGERING COLD AIR INFLUENCE OF THE
GREAT LAKES.
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY STILL APPEARS MURKY WITH RESPECT TO THE
ARRIVING OF A SECONDARY WARM FRONT AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL
US. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE MAY BE SOME DRY HOURS SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
BECOMING BREEZY AS WELL WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEARLY
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD SQUELCH OUR SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND WEAKER THERMAL PROFILES, THOUGH SHEAR MAY BE
PLENTIFUL.
SHARPLY COLDER IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WITH A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BUT, THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN QUICKLY BECOMES ZONAL
THEREAFTER ALLOWING FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED
OPPORTUNTIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW
RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THE LOWER LAYERS
WERE INITIALLY DRY, BUT AS THE FRONTOGENETIC AREA APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO FILL IN
OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW, KEPT TAFS VFR BUT DID MENTION CEILINGS
LOWERING TO 035 AT FWA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY JUST AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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