884
FXUS63 KIWX 280759
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
359 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING, BUT
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
- MUCH WARMER TODAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
- TURNING MUCH COOLER BY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN A BROAD ADVECTIVE FORCING REGIME. A 30 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS ALLOWED A STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH
ACCOMPANYING MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS
ADVECTIVE FORCING ALSO REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT ARE AIDING IN POCKET OF 200-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPES ADVECTING ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA. A FEW INSTANCES OF
SOME SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ESPECIALLY WEST OF US 31. OUTSIDE OF THE BROAD ADVECTIVE
FORCING, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS RATHER MEAGER
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MORE OF A CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE IN PLACE
THIS MORNING. THE INITIAL LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT SOME
INDICATIONS IN NEAR TERM GUIDANCE THAT SECONDARY UPTICK IN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ACCOMPANY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARD AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WITH SOME RENEWED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WARM FRONTAL FORCING WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWERS/STORMS.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY
WITH DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB SUPPORTING HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID
70S. SOME CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS PERSISTS TODAY AS BETTER DIURNAL
MIXING DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON MAY SUPPORT SOME WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH. THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTHWEST/PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA WHERE BEST MIXING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE 19-23Z TIMEFRAME.
MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT IN THE WARM
SECTOR. A 50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THIS EVENING, BUT SOME WEAK DECOUPLING SHOULD KEEP WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT INTO LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING.
FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH POPS FOR SATURDAY AS LOCAL
AREA MAY SITUATED BETWEEN BETTER FRONTALLY FORCED PRECIP WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, AND A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIFTING NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE TRIED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE AM
POPS TRANSITIONING TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS (30-50%) IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH MORE MEAGER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ON SATURDAY SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY THUNDER
POTENTIAL.
THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR CONVECTION THIS FORECAST PERIOD STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD AS A
MORE POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. AN
OVERALL GUIDANCE TREND TO MORE DEPTH AND SLOWER EVOLUTION COULD
ALLOW FOR PARAMETER SPACE TO FAVOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE 20Z-06Z
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. PLENTY OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES BEING THE MAIN ITEM OF
UNCERTAINTY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DEW
POINTS ADVECTING INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD BUT MID
LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES ARE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AND WILL
DEPEND ON QUALITY OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT ADVECTS IN FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXTENT OF ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO
AFFECT INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER,
GIVEN GUIDANCE TRENDS IN MORE AMPLITUDE/SLOWER SOLUTION,
CONCERN DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING FOR A LEAST A HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE TYPE SETUP.
UPSTREAM WAVE SHOULD DAMPEN RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DEFORMATION PRECIP TAPERING
QUICKLY AND CONFINED TO CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MID/UPPER
LEVEL COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING HOWEVER. OTHERWISE, TURNING MUCH COOLER
MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.
RESIDENCE TIME OF COLD AIR WILL BE SMALL AS ANOTHER STRONG EASTERN
PACIFIC JET MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL IMPACTS AT BOTH SITES OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 9
HOURS VARIES IN SEVERAL ASPECTS. HI RES MODELS HAVE SIGNALED AT
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TAKING SHAPE IN THE 4 TO 6Z TIME
FRAMED AND RADAR RETURNS IN NE IL INTO NW IN DO INDEED REFLECT
THIS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING THETA-E. THIS RESULTS IN
HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS IMPACTING BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. COVERAGE AND IMPACTS ON CIGS AND VSBY WOULD
SEEM TO BE MORE LIMITED IN TIME, TIED TO EACH SHOWER WITH
IMPROVEMENT IN BETWEEN. THIS IS WHERE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE
BEGINS TO SET UP WITH EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ON POSSIBLE THUNDER
CHANCES AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARRIVE FOR A SMALL WINDOW. HAVE
TRIED TO LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL AS BEST AS POSSIBLE BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AT BOTH SITES. WARM FRONT WILL SURGE
NORTH DURING THE MORNING WITH KFWA SEEING IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FIRST. KSBN COULD REMAIN IN SOME SHOWER (MAYBE STORM) ACTIVITY
THROUGH PARTS OF THE MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHAT BEFORE
GETTING A STRONGER PUSH NORTH.
ONCE CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AND WE ENTER THE WARM SECTOR, CONCERN
SHIFTS TO GUSTY WINDS BEING MIXED DOWN (ON THE ORDER OF 25 KTS
OR SO).
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER
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