441
FXUS63 KIWX 281046
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING, BUT
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
- MUCH WARMER TODAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
- TURNING MUCH COOLER BY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN A BROAD ADVECTIVE FORCING REGIME. A 30 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS ALLOWED A STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH
ACCOMPANYING MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS
ADVECTIVE FORCING ALSO REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT ARE AIDING IN POCKET OF 200-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPES ADVECTING ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA. A FEW INSTANCES OF
SOME SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ESPECIALLY WEST OF US 31. OUTSIDE OF THE BROAD ADVECTIVE
FORCING, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS RATHER MEAGER
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MORE OF A CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE IN PLACE
THIS MORNING. THE INITIAL LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT SOME
INDICATIONS IN NEAR TERM GUIDANCE THAT SECONDARY UPTICK IN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ACCOMPANY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARD AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WITH SOME RENEWED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WARM FRONTAL FORCING WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWERS/STORMS.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY
WITH DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB SUPPORTING HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID
70S. SOME CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS PERSISTS TODAY AS BETTER DIURNAL
MIXING DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON MAY SUPPORT SOME WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH. THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTHWEST/PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA WHERE BEST MIXING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE 19-23Z TIMEFRAME.
MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT IN THE WARM
SECTOR. A 50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THIS EVENING, BUT SOME WEAK DECOUPLING SHOULD KEEP WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT INTO LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING.
FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH POPS FOR SATURDAY AS LOCAL
AREA MAY SITUATED BETWEEN BETTER FRONTALLY FORCED PRECIP WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, AND A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIFTING NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE TRIED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE AM
POPS TRANSITIONING TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS (30-50%) IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH MORE MEAGER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ON SATURDAY SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY THUNDER
POTENTIAL.
THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR CONVECTION THIS FORECAST PERIOD STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD AS A
MORE POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. AN
OVERALL GUIDANCE TREND TO MORE DEPTH AND SLOWER EVOLUTION COULD
ALLOW FOR PARAMETER SPACE TO FAVOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE 20Z-06Z
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. PLENTY OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES BEING THE MAIN ITEM OF
UNCERTAINTY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DEW
POINTS ADVECTING INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD BUT MID
LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES ARE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AND WILL
DEPEND ON QUALITY OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT ADVECTS IN FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXTENT OF ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO
AFFECT INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER,
GIVEN GUIDANCE TRENDS IN MORE AMPLITUDE/SLOWER SOLUTION,
CONCERN DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING FOR A LEAST A HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE TYPE SETUP.
UPSTREAM WAVE SHOULD DAMPEN RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DEFORMATION PRECIP TAPERING
QUICKLY AND CONFINED TO CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MID/UPPER
LEVEL COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING HOWEVER. OTHERWISE, TURNING MUCH COOLER
MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.
RESIDENCE TIME OF COLD AIR WILL BE SMALL AS ANOTHER STRONG EASTERN
PACIFIC JET MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE PERIOD, WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION AND DURATION AT
KSBN, WARRANTING AT LEAST A TEMPO MENTION FOR TSRA (HELD WITH
PROB30 AT KFWA). VSBYS HAVE DROPPED WITH THE CONVECTION, BUT
OVERALL CIGS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN VFR SO WILL LIMIT DROPS TO HIGH
END MVFR FOR CIGS. CONDITIONS STILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTY WINDS THEN BECOMING THE MAIN CONCERN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER
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