830
FXUS63 KIWX 281827
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
227 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND WARMER INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY (20-50%)
- SHOWERS ARE LIKELY (60-80%) SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
- THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.
- BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WARM SECTOR AND ASSOCIATED STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON, REMAINING IN PLACE THEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WEST TO A DEVELOPING CENTRAL PLAINS SURFACE LOW. WARM FRONT
CURRENTLY STILL PRODUCING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NE IN/NW
OH/SC MI SHOULD TAPER OFF AND LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH BY 21/22Z.
BREEZY (GUSTS GENERALLY 30-40 MPH) AND WARM THE STORY OTHERWISE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 850
MB POST WARM FRONT. LLJ STRENGTHENS AGAIN TONIGHT OVERHEAD,
THOUGH EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL DECOUPLING TO LIMIT SFC GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT.
THE BULK OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY (LOW-MID
CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS), BREEZY AND MILD WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM SECTOR. BETTER RAIN CHANCES EVENTUALLY RETURN,
MAINLY FOR LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING LOWER MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE
TRACKS THROUGH.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A CONCERN FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A DEEPENING SFC LOW
TRACKING EAST FROM NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER 21Z SUN TO CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 04Z MON. THIS WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND POSSIBLY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THIS TIME. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL HAVE STRONG SHEAR AND DEEP
ASCENT TO WORK WITH ON THE NOSE OF A ~80 KT MID LEVEL JET.
INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES ARE THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE HOWEVER
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY,
AND IF AN INCOMING EML CAN REMAIN INTACT. OVERALL THIS LOOKS
LIKE YOUR TYPICAL SPRING HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP WITH WIND
LIKELY THE PRIMARY THREAT IF CONVECTION ORGANIZES, THROUGH LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF HIGHER CAPE
VALUES ARE REALIZED.
COOL DOWN POST-FRONTAL WILL BE BRIEF INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH INDUCES A RENEWED ROUND OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR RAIN/STORM CHANCES BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL STILL
CONTINUE AT SBN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND CAN'T RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING. FWA IS DRY FOR THE MOMENT, BUT ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONCE THE
CONVECTION FINALLY CLEARS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE
AREA, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
HIGH CEILINGS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN BECOME THE MAIN
CONCERN. CEILINGS WILL START TO LOWER AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH RAIN EXPECTED AGAIN MID-DAY SATURDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...COBB
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