851
FXUS63 KIWX 302308
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
708 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY SEVERE, EXITS OFF TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH BY 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING.
- BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ON
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA. AS
IT DOES SO, IT PUSHES A 40 KT JET THROUGH THE REGION OUT IN FRONT OF
A COLD FRONT, MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND 6Z. THE
BEST SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR WEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIAL BOUNDARY-PERPENDICULAR ORIENTED SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING INITIAL
CELLULAR TYPE TO BECOME MORE LINEAR AND FOR A HAIL/TORNADO THREAT TO
BECOME MORE OF A WIND/EMBEDDED TORNADO THREAT. OF NOTE IS THE
EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES STRUGGLING TO REACH 200 M2/S2 UNTIL IT
REACHES NW OH AROUND 00Z. INSTABILITY WAS CONSIDERED THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR HEADING INTO THE EVENT AND SCATTERING OF CLOUDS OVER
IL WAS A POSITIVE SIGN AS WELL AS THE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MODELED ON THE 12Z NAM. STILL LOOKS TO SOMEWHAT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY TO
TRY TO AND GET THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN HERE TO HELP WITH DCAPE
AND TO GET BETTER HAIL SIZES, ESPECIALLY IF THE ML LAPSE RATES ARE
GOING TO BE UNMIXED. MORNING LOW CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP LCLS
LESS THAN 1000M TO HELP ANY EMBEDDED TORNADO THREAT. ANY FLOODING
THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO NEED TRAINING AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
OF RECEIVING 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NOBLE/DEKALB COUNTIES AREA AS WELL
AS URBAN CONDITIONS TO REALLY BECOME MUCH OF A FACTOR. ALTHOUGH
PONDING COULD BE A FACTOR IF IT RAINS AT A FAST RATE. THERE ARE 6
RIVERS IN ACTION STAGE AS OF THIS MORNING.
AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA, THE COLD
FRONT THAT CAUSED THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING PUSHES SOUTHEAST. CAA TOOK PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED BELOW ZERO AND DEW POINTS DROPPED
FROM THE MUGGY 60S BACK INTO THE DRIER 30S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COOLER DAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE BACK IN THE 40S
AS OPPOSED TO THE 60S AND 70S WE'VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BY TO THE NORTH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES THROUGH
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWING SOME QUIETER CLEAN UP TIME.
TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES WITH SOME 50 DEGREE
HIGHS AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES LATE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GAINING A
SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT.
BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS EAST
OF THE ROCKIES AND EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING
TUESDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT IS PUSHED NORTHWARD, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON SETTING UP THE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. OF COURSE, ONE ISSUE WITH THIS
IS THAT CONVECTION MAY GET IN HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE SUNRISE
AND WE'LL SEE WHAT THAT DOES TO THE EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.
A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WAS MODELED FOR STORMS ON SUNDAY, BUT AN EVEN
STRONGER 45 TO 55 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS BEING MODELED FOR STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY. DEW POINTS REATTAIN 60 DEGREES AND HIGHS REACH 70 DEGREES
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US-6. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE SOME
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, AS LONG AS THAT WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS EVENT OCCURS AROUND PEAK HEATING. AS
LONG AS THAT'S THE CASE AND WITH THE SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES BEING
MODELED, THIS COULD BE A POTENT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH ALL
HAZARDS ON THE TABLE. GUSTY SYNOPTIC WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FLOODING COULD BE A HAZARD WITH THIS EVENT GIVEN
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF RECENT RAINFALL, BUT WE'LL NEED TO SEE HOW
THE BASINS FAIR AND HOW MUCH RUNOFF CAN OCCUR TO BRING RIVERS BACK
INTO ACTION STAGE OR BELOW. STORM MOTIONS MAY BE QUICK THROUGH THE
AREA, BUT TRAINING OF STORMS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE WITH A TENDENCY FOR
THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN.
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND THE WEEKEND, THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND
RIDES NORTHWARD. RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US-24. THEN, UNCERTAINTY ARISES AS THERE COULD
BE MORE SHOWERS THAT CONTINUE ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE SAME
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND OR THE FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE PRIMARY LINE OF CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE TERMINALS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH, BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
OF KFWA THROUGH 02/03Z. MAINLY VFR WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
NEAR 12 KNOTS OTHERWISE THIS EVENING BEFORE MVFR CIGS WRAP BACK
IN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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