664
FXUS63 KIWX 010548
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
148 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE LINGERING STRATOCU AND
SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO RECOVER ALOFT WITH
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION MAKING FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND
SEASONABLE FIRST DAY OF APRIL.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING CENTRAL US LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING A NORTHEASTWARD JAUNT THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE
LEADING LLJ CORE SHOULD ALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SPILL IN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS, WITH HOW
QUICKLY THIS MOVES OUT AND WHERE THE WARM FRONT LAYS OUT BEING
THE KEY FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE CONVECTION MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. FLOW/SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE VERY
SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION (ALL HAZARDS, POTENTIALLY
DISCRETE SUPERCELL TRANSITION TO LINE SEGMENTS), HOWEVER IT IS
THE DEGREE OF HEATING AND RESULTING INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES THAT
REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, HYDRO ISSUES MAY ARISE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS AN INCOMING COLD FRONT SLOWS AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE FLOW ALOFT, WITH ENSEMBLES POINTING TOWARD ANOMALOUS GULF
MOISTURE FOR EARLY APRIL STANDARDS.
MODELS OVERALL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTLING SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
COOLER/SEASONABLE TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, THOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT TIMES AS
WEAK FRONTAL WAVES TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
A SECONDARY TROUGH WITH REINFORCING WEAK COLD ADVECTION PUSHED
IS ALLOWING SOME PATCHY STRATOCU TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD FROM LOWER
MICHIGAN. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORT-
LIVED MVFR CIGS OF 2-3K FEET APPEAR TO BE AT KFWA IN THE 07Z-09Z
WINDOW. OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TAKES
OVER. THIS STRONG ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASE IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERSPREADING NORTHERN INDIANA BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD INTO
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO BROAD PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI
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