584
FXUS63 KIWX 220459
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1259 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLEARING SKIES WILL BRING A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY FROST POTENTIAL.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXISTS MAINLY TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF US-6. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
- RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 21 2025
POST FRONTAL STRATOCU SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIX OUT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS WELL, BUT MAY REMAIN
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MI WHERE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP INTO THE UPPER (AND
MAYBE MID) 30S. GIVEN THIS AND LIKELY SHORT DURATION OF TEMPS IN THE
30S WILL HOLD ON ANY FROST HEADLINES.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION
TUESDAY AND TUES NIGHT. LOW LEVEL INCREASE IN THETA-E ATTEMPTS TO
COMMENCE WITH GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIERS OF OUR
AREA (US 6 NORTH). MANY MODELS SHOWS ONE OR MORE SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS/ISOL STORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THIS GRADIENT BEING
FED BY SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (SHOWALTERS GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE)
AND A NARROW PLUME OF PWATS AROUND AN INCH POOLING ALONG THE
GRADIENT. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED AT THE SETUP, BUT MAINTENANCE OF NO
MORE THAN CHC POPS ACROSS THE N/NW APPEARS WARRANTED FOR NOW.
WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA SOLIDLY IN
A STRONG SW FLOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND NEAR
80 FOR SOME AREAS THURSDAY. A DEEPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN US BY THURSDAY WITH 2 WEAKER DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. BOTH OF THESE
WAVES SHOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAYBE
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MORE LIKELY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH WELL WEST OF THE GULF,
WORRIED THAT INFLUX OF MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED (SFC
DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES). BIT WORRIED ABOUT OVERALL
TIMING AND COVERAGE IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD, BUT TRENDS SEEM TO SUGGEST
FRI NIGHT AS MAYBE THE BEST SHOT. CAT POPS WERE INTRODUCED, BUT
THESE COULD BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE MOISTURE CONCERNS. A BRIEF
COOLDOWN OCCURS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AGAIN INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFORMENTIONED CONTINUES ITS
SLOW EASTWARD PUSH (BARELY TO THE 4 CORNERS AREA BY 12Z MON). WEAK
WAVES CONTINUE TO RIDE NW ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT
COULD BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES, BUT ANY LARGER SCALE EVENTS
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR WEST FOR THE TIME BEING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
IT WILL BE A TRANQUIL, QUIET WEATHER DAY TODAY. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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