281
FXUS63 KIWX 220933
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
533 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
70.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF US 24.
- VERY WARM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-80S
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTING THROUGH
MN, WITH A SUBTLE BAROCLINIC ZONE INFERRED TO ITS SOUTH, SPREADING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVERGENCE IS NOTED IN THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF US 24 THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS COME NOTABLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH
RAIN CHANCES SINCE 12 HOURS AGO OWING TO A SEEMINGLY FLATTER, ZONAL
500-MB PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD LEAVES BEHIND A STOUT DRY LAYER
THAT IS FORECAST TO BE CONQUERED AFTER 00Z (8PM EDT) WHEN IMPROVED
FORCING ARRIVES VIA A MODEST 850-MB JET. INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 500 J/KG RESULTING IN A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGRESS IS
UNCERTAIN. HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL
INDIANA WHICH WILL CERTAINLY WORK AGAINST WET WEATHER THERE. AN
OVERALL LACK OF STRONG FORCING PERMITS THIS HIGH TO LOITER RATHER
THAN EXIT OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL, NECESSITATING SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS.
NOT A WASHOUT TO END THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SOUTHEAST US RIDGE PUMPS IN ADEQUATE
GULF MOISTURE WHILE BROAD TROUGHING IN THE WEST SENDS SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE NATION'S HEARTLAND. WET
WEATHER WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. COOLER IN ITS WAKE AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LIMITS HIGHS
ON SATURDAY TO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S. THIS IS A NOTABLE CONTRAST TO
HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S TO
NEAR 80.
BECOMING VERY WARM ONCE MORE IN THE FINAL DAYS OF APRIL WITH MORE
WET WEATHER AS THE SOUTHEAST US RIDGE AMPLIFIES FURTHER, STEERING
ADDITIONAL IMPULSES OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
TODAY'S WEATHER WILL BE TRANQUIL AND WARM. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AFTER SUNSET AS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE IN. THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS TO SEE RAIN THIS EVENING WITH BE NORTH OF US
24 AND WEST OF US 31. KSBN IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE PREVAILING
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KFWA SEES A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AT KSBN COME AT THE
END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD FROM 06-12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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