915
FXUS63 KIWX 231422
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1022 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERALL DRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- BRIEF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK UP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAS
STRUGGLED TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIRMASS WITH RETURNS FALLING APART
AS THEY COME EAST. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED IN A WHILE AS
WELL. RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN LK MI ARE STRUGGLING AS WELL AND
ANTICIPATE A FURTHER DECREASE, WHICH MODELS HAVE HANDLED FAIRLY
WELL. AS A RESULT, POPS HAVE BEEN CLEANED UP EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGER SLGT POPS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE FAR NW.
THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW EVERYONE TO WARM NICELY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S STILL LOOKING TO BE ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
A CLUSTER OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN IS MOVING INTO NW INDIANA FROM IL
HAS ALL BUT FIZZLED OUT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR AREA,
DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. A FEW SPRINKLES HERE OR THERE OVER
FAR SW MICHIGAN AND NW INDIANA REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE EARLIER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED.
ANOTHER POCKET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE ONGOING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE PLAINS, IS CURRENTLY FIRING
UP OVER IOWA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER
TIME AS CAMS SUGGEST HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NW IN
THROUGH SW MI. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
WEAK RIDGING CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
PROMOTE CONTINUED WARMING INTO THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S (70S NEAR THE LAKE). WHILE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKING
HIGHLY LIKELY (80-90% CHANCE), CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN
SOME FEATURES, INCLUDING A LARGE VARIATION IN AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES.
CURRENT FORECAST PROJECTIONS ARE FOR AROUND A HALF INCH OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH,
BRINGING IN COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND, BEFORE TEMPS
START TO CREEP BACK UP DURING THE BEGINNING PART OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO AREAS WEST OF US 31 THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RADAR
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS CURRENTLY SHOWERS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARDS NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE PROB30 GROUP THIS MORNING IN THE KSBN TAF TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. HAVE KEPT KFWA DRY,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY LATER THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES (MAINLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WHEN THERE IS A WIND DIRECTION) TODAY AND VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...FISHER
DISCUSSION...NORMAN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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