722
FXUS63 KIWX 231844
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
244 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH BRIEFLY "COOLER" TEMPERATURES IN THE
WAKE OF EACH DISTURBANCE.
- A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS LIKELY FRIDAY, BUT
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
- A THREAT OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS EXISTS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TIMING, COVERAGE AND OVERALL
INTENSITY DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
REMNANTS OF SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY
WORKED INLAND, BUT HIGHER CLOUD BASES AND LITTLE MORE THAN AN
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE CONFIRM THE DRY LAYER IS HOLDING STRONG. WHILE
THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
DON'T ANTICIPATE MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH IT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM
THIS AREA HAS LIMITED HEATING IN NW SECTIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S VERSUS OTHER AREAS CURRENTLY INTO THE 70S. A
QUICK WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR ONCE THE CLOUD BREAK UP OR SHIFT EAST BUT
70S COULD BE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY IMPACTS OF A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL WELL OFF THE WESTERN US COAST THAT WILL MOVE
EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE SW US LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WITH A PERIOD OF
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A PERSISTENT SW FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE STILL IS SET TO WORK INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY, BUT MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT ON EXACT TIMING OF THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH SOME OF THE CAMS INDICATING THE
BEST CHANCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF INCREASING LAPSE RATES IN THE
MORNING, WITH THIS ACTIVITY THEN SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERS SHOW THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH
TRIGGERING FEATURES RATHER SUBTLE AND OVERALL FLOW/INSTABILITY IS
SUFFICIENT BUT ALSO NOT OVERLY STRONG, HAVE NO CHOICE FOR NOW
BUT TO MAINTAIN THE LIKELY TO CAT POPS WITH AN ANTICIPATION OF
FURTHER REFINEMENT IN TIMING IN COMING FORECASTS. SEVERE STORMS
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN AT THIS POINT.
A BRIEF COOLDOWN OCCURS BEHIND THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY, WITH UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY RECOVERING AS THE CLOSED LOW WORKS SLOWLY
EAST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL TUESDAY AS THE MAIN STREAM OF
BETTER LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE SIGNALS
ARE THERE FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS IT PUSHES
CLOSER BY TUESDAY, MED RANGE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE FILLING
OF THE TROUGH WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE
WITH TIME. NEW MODEL BLEND REFLECTS THIS WITH PREVIOUS LIKELY POPS
NOW MORE IN THE MID TO HIGH CHC RANGE, WHICH IS PREFERRED IN THESE
LATER PERIODS WHEN CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION.
SPC PLACED THE AREA IN A DAY 7 (TUESDAY) 15% SEVERE PROB. NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS COULD BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE, BUT OF ANY OF THE SYSTEMS
IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO THIS HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO BRING STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW, MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF KSBN THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON NEAR A WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE. DRY/VFR OTHERWISE WITH LIGHT WINDS INTO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVERSPREADS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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