129
FXUS63 KIWX 240854 AAA
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
412 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH BRIEFLY "COOLER" TEMPERATURES IN THE
WAKE OF EACH DISTURBANCE.
- A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS LIKELY FRIDAY, BUT
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
- A THREAT OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS EXISTS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TIMING, COVERAGE AND OVERALL
INTENSITY DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
BRING WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN
TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S THIS
AFTERNOON AND UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WINDS ALSO WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH THE RIDGING IN PLACE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING
OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A PUSH OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA IN IT'S WAKE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE,
HOWEVER A FEW GUSTY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ON SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S AND SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE 30S AND LOW 40S.
WE WILL THEN SEE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WARMER YET WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH DRAPED THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL USHER IN INCREASED MOISTURE WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING. WE ARE
CURRENTLY MONITORING THE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR AREA MARKED FOR 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS FOR THE DAY 6 FORECAST. AS WE GET CLOSER AND HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WE WILL BE ABLE
RESOLVE MORE DETAILS AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW DID INCLUDE CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. COOLER WEATHER AGAIN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THAT SYSTEM WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE 06Z TAFS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL, SUNNY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (LESS THAN 5 KTS) OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL WITH ONLY SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO BRING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA JUST BEYOND THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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