394
FXUS63 KIWX 251047
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
647 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCES (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (70% CHANCE).
- COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 DEGREES. SUNDAY WARMING
TREND BEGINS AND BACK INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
80 ON TUESDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
A WARM SOUTHERLY INFLUX OVER THE AREA WITH A MORE MOIST AIRMASS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SOUTHERN WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING INTO THE CWA. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3:30AM EDT WERE IN THE LOWER 60S AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO
THE AREA.
A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CENTRAL
CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SKIRT
JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA LATER TODAY TRYING TO PHASE WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO
THE TROUGH BECOMING CLOSED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. BUT
BEFORE DOING SO WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT/INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE CWA LATER TODAY INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO AROUND 60-70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL BE LACKING SO NO EXPECTATION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER WITH THE 60 DEGREE PLUS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS PRESENT, PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S DUE TO THE SLIGHT DROP IN SYNOPTIC HEIGHTS WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH.
A BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM PASSAGE
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GETTING DOWN INTO THE 40S. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY GET INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES,
MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PUSHING COOLER MARINE AIR ONTO SHORE. THE BREEZY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
A WARMING TREND BUT NOT BEFORE LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FURTHER WARMING FOR THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND INTO
THE LOWER 80S FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BRING MORE
MOIST AIR WITH DEW POINTS RETURNING INTO THE 50S BY MONDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY. A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH
INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD-FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SPC HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A
15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THEIR OUTLOOKS FOR TUESDAY.
STILL A BIT EARLY TO LOCK ONTO ANY OF THE DETAILS, INCLUDING THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL BE IMPORTANT
CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE OPTIMAL DIURNAL HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND IN THE COMING DAYS WILL HAVE
INCREASED INFORMATION AND HOPEFULLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE LEVELS
ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.
A MORE ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY TO THE REGION BRINGING A
RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WILL ALLOW A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK TO KEEP
THE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERSECTING A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. LATEST HI-RES CAM'S STILL SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS WILL BE 19-23Z WITH AN HOUR ADJUSTMENT POSSIBLE ON
EITHER SIDE. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY. LOW STRATUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
GIVEN CAA AND ABUNDANT RESIDUAL MOISTURE. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
HOVER AROUND 1 KFT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...AGD
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