507
FXUS63 KIWX 261615
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1215 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE 30S. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF US-31 AND NORTH OF US-6. TEMPERATURES THEN TREND
WARMER THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS HAS
ARRIVED. WITH THE INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW, A COMBINATION OF
COOLED AIR FLOWING OVER THE LAKE AND SMALLER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS FROM THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER FROM RECENT RAINS
LEAVING LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE WHICH HAVE HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODEST WITH 4 AM EDT CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE MID 40S.
BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S AND LOW 60S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, HOWEVER COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TODAY WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MID- LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP
OVER THE REGION. SOME AREAS OF FROST DUE TO THE INCREASED
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND REDUCTION IN WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY NORTH OF US-6 AND WEST OF US-31. ONE THING TO WATCH IS
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT COULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER MITIGATING THE FROST ISSUE IN
SPOTS. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS
POTENTIAL.
BROAD RIDGING MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S. MONDAY WILL THEN BE WARMER
YET WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING PUSHING HIGHS INTO
THE 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
MAY SEE 80 DEGREES. INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
INCREASING INTO THE 50S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWESTERN
REGIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THOSE AREAS ON MONDAY BUT COULD SEE LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SOME OF THAT CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE AREA INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD REMAIN
STRONG SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT. THIS POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO
KEEP CLOUDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD
KEEP SOLAR INSOLATION MINIMIZED AND THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOWER. SO AGAIN, UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
EXACT EVOLUTION WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN EXPECTED STORM
POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC STILL HAS A 15%
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON TUESDAY BUT ANY CLOUD COVER
MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 60S AND COOLER NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
AREAS. TROUGHING WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE CWA WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN
THE 60S THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
MVFR STRATOCU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF SCATTERING/LIFTING AS OF
16Z WITH A FULL MIXOUT TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
OTHERWISE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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