966
FXUS63 KIWX 281202
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
802 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF I 69, WITH THE MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING AND THEY ARRIVE
AROUND 1-2 AM ET WHEN CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE.
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST OF
IN-15, WITH THE MAIN THREATS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS MEDIUM.
- RAIN THREATS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS WHICH WILL BRING US WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT LATELY
OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE STEADILY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MN, IA, AND WI, AND NW IL. FOR OUR
AREA, AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY LATER TODAY AND WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE INFLUX WITH DEW POINTS GOING FROM AROUND
40 DEGREES THIS MORNING TO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THIS EVENING.
HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL DRAPE
SOUTHWARD DOWN INTO TX AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BE
KNOCKING ON OUR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND 1-2 AM EDT.
SO NOT REALLY MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING OF TIMING SINCE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT THINKING IS ANY CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS OUR
AREA, HOWEVER A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE
BUT THE DIURNAL TIMING WILL JUST NOT BE FAVORABLE. WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD THE NEXT CONSIDERATION FOR TUESDAY
WILL BE HOW MUCH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER WILL WE BE DEALING WITH AS
THIS WILL DETERMINE IF SURFACE WARMING IS MINIMIZED. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
OVER OUR EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. FORECASTED SB CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.5-7.5 DEG/KM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35
TO 45 KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF AROUND 100 M2/S2 ALSO
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. SO THE INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO BE ALL THERE AND LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS SEEM TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT BUT WITH THE SUFFICIENT HELICITY VALUES A FEW
ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.2 INCHES ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCAL NUISANCE FLOODING. SPC SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ALSO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER OUR AREA
SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND STILL HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF ABOUT IN-15.
WITH THE FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD WE GET A SHORT BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOWS BACK IN THE 40S.
HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK NORTHWARD BRINGING
MOISTURE POLEWARD ONCE AGAIN AND BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S BUT GETTING
WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. TROUGHING PUSHES BACK INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS AND BRINGING MAINLY DRIER CONDITIONS.
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WITH RIDGE AXIS PUSHING WELL POLEWARD INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL
CANADA BY SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A WARMING TREND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 801 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARDS 9-12Z
WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE LIGHT ESE
WINDS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON, STRENGTHENING
TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THOUGH AS WE DECOUPLE THEY MAY INITIALLY
BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT. LLWS WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 50 KNOT RANGE
AFTER 3-4Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z. DECAYING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST AROUND 7-9Z, THEN
POTENTIALLY KFWA TOWARDS 10-12Z, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IT
IS POSSIBLE THE STORMS DIE OUT BEFORE THEY REACH INDIANA ALL
TOGETHER. HAVE A PROB30 FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT EACH TERMINAL TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT KFWA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...MCD
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