708
FXUS63 KIWX 121819
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
219 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY IN THE DAYS AHEAD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- SEVERAL DRY HOURS TODAY BUT THERE IS A 20% TO 40% CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT HAS
A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2025
A CUT-OFF LOW IS SWIRLING SLOWLY NORTHWARD, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
WESTERN TENNESSEE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY STREAMING IN ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DEW POINTS ARE SLOWLY RISING BUT ARE IN THE 40S
OR UPPER-30S. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE MORNING
AND HAVE THUS BEEN REMOVED. INSTEAD, THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW NEARS AND THE 850-MB JET
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER WESTERN OHIO. SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
APPEAR WIDELY SCATTERED, PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF I-69 BUT SOME
SHOWERS COULD SNEAK AS FAR WEST AS US-31. PLENTY OF DRY TIME TODAY
HOWEVER. SHOWERS OVERNIGHT LIFT NORTH, PRIMARILY ALONG A WEAK
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW, THUS ALLOWING
SOUTHERN AREAS TO DRY OUT OVERNIGHT.
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS WHEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST WIDESPREAD AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA. BY THIS TIME, DRY AIR WILL
HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN OVERCOME AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE FREE-
FLOWING FROM THE ATLANTIC. IT IS QUITE PLAUSIBLE THAT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND IS DRY, BUT WITH THE LOW STILL IN PROXIMITY AND GIVEN AT LEAST
LOW POPS INHERITED, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW TRACKS EAST WEDNESDAY BUT LINGERING VORT LOBES
COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THINKING WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY'S SEVERE
WEATHER RISK. A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL SPREAD A COLD
FRONT EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT OUR ENVIRONMENT IS ON TRACK FOR AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR
STORMS, THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL ARRIVAL OF STORMS FROM ILLINOIS WILL
LIMIT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK. UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT COULD BE BETTER AS WELL, WITH GUIDANCE GENERALLY CONFINING
THE 70-KNOT 500MB JET TO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI. AS MENTIONED
IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE COLD FRONT MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY,
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2025
INCREASED MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY
WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSHOWERS THROUGH 00Z TUE FOR KFWA AND THROUGH 04Z TUE
FOR KSBN. AFTER THESE TIME PERIODS VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY
TO MVFR DUE TO LOWERING CIGS. CIGS WILL LOWER FURTHER TO IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z TUE FOR KFWA AND 08Z TUE FOR KSBN. AFTER
AROUND 14Z TUE WE WILL SEE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS BRINGING
A RETURN TO MVFR CATEGORIES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...T
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