203
FXUS63 KIWX 140424
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1224 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- VERY WARM ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
- WHILE THE DAYTIME WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY THURSDAY, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2025
UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE WESTERN TN VALLEY WILL FINALLY GET A PUSH
NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EDGING EAST TOWARD THE
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS (MAINLY DIURNAL) THANKS TO A MOIST COLUMN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE AND JUST ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING, WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY FOCUSED NEAR SMALL SCALE VORT LOBES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS, FLOW AND
INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A SEVERE WX RISK WITH LIGHTNING, BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND COLD AIR FUNNELS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS EACH
AFTERNOON.
THE ROCKIES UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG SFC
LOW EMERGING OVER MN BY FRIDAY MORNING PER LATEST GUIDANCE. A
LEADING WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE ADVECT INTO THE LOCAL
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH WARM TEMPS (NEAR RECORDS) AND A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE RISK THURSDAY NIGHT. PROGGED SHEAR/INSTABILITY PROFILES CHECK
THE BOX FOR POTENTIAL DEEP/SEVERE CONVECTION, HOWEVER, DELAYED
FORCING AND WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM EML BASE MAY KEEP A LID ON
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG AN INCOMING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.
HEIGHT FALLS EVENTUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND TRENDING COOLER, DRY AND
BREEZY IN RESPONSE TO THE SUPPRESSION. COULD SEE ANOTHER FRONTAL
WAVE DRIVE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY PM IN THIS
TRANSITION, THOUGH THE BULK OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR AREAS OFF
THE SOUTH FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CHANCES. THURSDAY NIGHT'S
ACTIVITY, OR LACK THEREOF, WILL DICTATE THE TIMING/TRACK OF FRIDAY'S
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2025
EAST FLOW CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER NIGHT AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, UNLIKE LAST NIGHT, CEILINGS WERE LOWER AND
VISIBILITIES WERE FALLING BELOW A 1/2SM IN SOME PLACES. FWA HAD
A CEILING OF 004; SMD (SMITH FIELD) AT 003 AND GWB AT 005.
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO DROP
QUITE LOW AT FWA (HAVE 2SM WITH A TEMPO GROUP FROM 09Z-13Z DOWN
TO 1/2SM. VISIBILITIES WERE QUITE VARIABLE WITH PATCHY DENSE
FOG REPORTED IN MAINLY RURAL AND OPEN AREAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES INTO THE AREA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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