962
FXUS63 KIWX 170519
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
119 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS EVENING, MAINLY BETWEEN 7PM
AND 10PM EDT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT, MAINLY SOUTH OF US 24.
- COOLER AND BREEZY ON SATURDAY.
- PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK, MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2025
A SHORTWAVE, 70-80 KT 500 MB JET, AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRACK
THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE BASE OF AN
UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW. THE ASSOCIATED SHOT OF DEEPER ASCENT AND
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, MAINLY SOUTH OF US 24, AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. INSTABILITY IS THE LIMITING FACTOR
HOWEVER WITH MLCIN AND DRY AIR TO OVERCOME, THOUGH INCOMING
HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT, AND SOME LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION, SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW UPDRAFTS TO BREAK THE
CAP WITH MLCAPE POTENTIALLY SURGING INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE (HIGHEST SOUTHEAST OF US 24). HIGH DCAPE WITH STEEP 0-3KM
LAPSE RATES FAVOR A DOWNBURST WIND THREAT IF ANY MULTICELL
CLUSTERS/LINES EMERGE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING MORE
THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS IS LOW, WITH GREATER PROBS
FOR SEVERE STORMS OFF TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE PRIMARY
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS.
COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF A STACKED LOW MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS POST-FRONTAL LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL ALSO ALLOW STRATOCU TO BUILD IN FOR A TIME,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US 30 WHERE NON ZERO CHANCES FOR A ROGUE
SPRINKLE/SHOWER WILL EXIST. SUNDAY IS DEFINITELY THE PREFERRED
WEEKEND DAY WEATHER-WISE AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH SUNSHINE, LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AT TIMES AS AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF
AND SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL US AND GREAT LAKES. THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS,
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID-LATE MAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2025
AN UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND HEADS TOWARDS
THE NORTHEASTERN US. THIS ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME 850 MB MOISTURE LINGERS STARTING AROUND SUNRISE INTO
DAYTIME. LAV GUIDANCE HAS SOME MVFR CIGS, BUT THE HEIGHT OF THE
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE JUST A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR COMPLETE
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS. TRACING BACK THE LOCATION OF MVFR CIGS
ADVECTING IN DOES SHOW THAT THOSE CIGS DO EXIST ACROSS WI SO THAT
INCREASES CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE, WILL INCLUDE IN THESE TAFS, BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY COULD BE PULLED IN THE 12Z TAFS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER TOWARDS WESTERLY BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND 20 TO 30 KT WIND GUSTS TO BE
EXPERIENCED.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ROLLER
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