154
FXUS63 KIWX 190525
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
125 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL OVERSPREAD
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHILE AT THE SFC DRY NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
WILL ALLOW COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH HIGH CLOUDS
LIKELY ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT.
SOME NEEDED RAIN STILL APPEARS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS
EAST ALONG IT. WARM SECTOR REMAINS LOCKED UP TO THE SOUTH WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON MAINLY TUESDAY,
THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS,
MAINLY SOUTH OF US 30. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
STORY OTHERWISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD GIVEN A
SUPPRESSED/BLOCKED FLOW REGIME AS NEGATIVE UPPER LOWS EVENTUALLY
MERGE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ITS FRONTAL SYSTEM RUNS INTO DRY AIR AND THERE'S
EVIDENCE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF MI AND
THIS LIKELY HELPS STALL THE ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THAT
ARRIVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH THIS IN MIND, WILL THROW OUT THE
NAM SOLUTION OF RAIN AFFECTING THE AREA AND LEAN DRY ON THE
FORECAST. THIS ALSO ALLOWS FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES IN TIME SECTION
MODEL OUTPUT. WIND-WISE, EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE TO VEER MORE
EASTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS DON'T QUITE GO CALM THROUGH
THE PERIOD, BUT EXPECT WEAK TO NO WIND GUSTS UNTIL WE GET TO AT
LEAST 6Z MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ROLLER
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