126
FXUS63 KIWX 102156
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
556 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER INTO
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
- WARM AND HUMID WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2025
ONGOING HEIGHT RISES IN A TRANSITION TO A LESS AMPLIFIED QUASI-ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MORE QUIET WX INTO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (850 MB TEMPS NEAR
18C) TO SPILL EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AGAIN TOMORROW,
THOUGH THE SKY MAY HAVE A HAZY LOOK TO IT AT TIMES THANKS TO
CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE.
IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY SOUTH OF A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO
LIE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE MI BORDER. AN UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT MAY ACT TO FORCE THE SFC BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW INTO
OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED (DIURNALLY DRIVEN) CONVECTION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS APPEAR RATHER LIMITED WHICH
SHOULD HAMPER COVERAGE/INTENSITY.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH INCREASING GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO AN OSCILLATING FRONTAL ZONE OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN AT TIMES FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL TRACK THROUGH IN
THIS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW, WHILE THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW TO TAKE AIM ON THE OH VALLEY BY AROUND
FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THE PLAINS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE OTHERWISE REGARDING DAILY PRECIP CHANCES AND
TEMPS AS SUBTLE CONVECTIVE AIDED SHORTWAVES WILL AUGMENT WHERE
THE ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED FROM DAY TO DAY. OPTED
TO HOLD WITH NBM DAILY BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
GIVEN THE UPCOMING LOW PREDICTABILITY PATTERN.
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/..
ISSUED AT 552 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT MOST SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU POPPING ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GUSTIER WINDS AT KFWA WILL DIMINISH NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET SO
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT TO START THE FORECAST. AS WAA
STARTS WEDNESDAY, A GREATER LIKIHOOD OF GUSTY WINDS AT BOTH
SITES IS IN STORE, BUT EVEN SO GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 20
KTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER
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