774
FXUS63 KIWX 111730
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
130 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SKY MAY APPEAR HAZY TODAY DUE TO
SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST ON AND OFF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2025
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND MUCH OF THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER KY EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA AND FAIRLY
ZONAL/SLIGHTLY RIDGED FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN CWA TO BECOME MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT.
THE FIRST WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
WITH MOST PRECIPITATION STAYING TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DOES SHIFT THIS
BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING US
PRECIPITATION CHANCES-ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. SFC CAPE RANGES FROM
1000-2000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE, SO IF THIS OCCURS
EXPECT WE'LL SEE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS WELL. SEVERE THREAT WOULD
BE LIMITED IF ANY GIVEN BULK SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS (EXCEPT NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO 25-30 KTS). MODELS VARY WIDELY IN REGARDS
TO PRECIPITATION LOCATION (MOST NORTH OF US 30) AND COVERAGE (FROM
NOTHING TO 30 PERCENT) STILL-SO HAVE CAPPED THE POPS AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR NOW-FOCUSING ON THE 21-00Z RANGE. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST, THEN IN THE 80S THURSDAY (LOW 80S
FURTHER NORTH IN MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST OH AND NEAR LAKE MI). LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FRIDAY A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN, REACHING THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD POPS-PARTICULARLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY (MID-RANGE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION) AND
PERSISTS UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND WINDS SHIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES LOOK
LIMITED OVERALL DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND MAYBE LOW
80S ON THE WEEKEND.
THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, BUT LEFT CONSENSUS NBM POPS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH
TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS JUNCTURE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE WEEKEND DISTURBANCE (LATE SUN-MON) AND THEN ANOTHER
STRONGER WAVE COULD BUILD IN BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. STILL MODELS
DISAGREE WIDELY AT THIS POINT-SO NO NEED TO DEVIATE FROM CONSENSUS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW TO MID 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 22Z WED. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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