922
FXUS63 KIWX 112240
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
640 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S THROUGH FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR ISOLATED STORMS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE MICHIGAN BORDER.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (30-40%) INTO SATURDAY (50-80%). LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2025
WARMER LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO SAGE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE MICHIGAN BORDER THURSDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES (~1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE)
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE (20%) NEAR THE
SHALLOW CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. BRIEF DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING AND GUSTS TO
30 MPH THE ONLY THREATS GIVEN THE LACKING FLOW AND FORCING ALOFT.
ATTENTION LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WILL TURN TO A
MOISTURE-LADEN UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1.75 INCHES SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER, IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON
TIMING AND TRACK GIVEN THE INTERACTION WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL
FLOW. THIS LEAVES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY SHOWERS REACH
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE
BEST BET LOCALLY FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SUNDAY THEN A
DRIER/SEASONABLE DAY AS THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SHUNTS THIS SYSTEM
AND FRONTAL ZONE OFF TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2025
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS
OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CEILINGS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS
ELEVATED CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY, SO I WOULDN'T BE SUPRISED IF THE SKY HAS A
HAZY, OBSCURED LOOK TO IT. THE SMOKE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMAPCT
SURFACE VISIBILITIES. ON THURSDAY, A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE INDIANA/MICHIGAN BORDER, WITH VERY
LOW CHANCES (15%) OR LESS FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN THE
EVENING. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAFS
AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP, BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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