890
FXUS63 KIWX 121822
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
222 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN INCREASING CHANCE (40% TO 70%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S OR NEAR 80 THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
THE MID-LATITUATDE JET IS DISPLACED POLEWARD, ALONG THE NORTHERN US
BORDER, AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT IS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MI. THIS COULD STILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. A SECONDARY AREA
OF INTEREST FOR A POP-UP STORM WOULD BE ON THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE
THAT IS SLOWLY PUSHING WESTWARD INTO WAUSEON, OH. CONFIDENCE IN A
STORM OCCURRING IS LOW PRIMARILY DUE TO WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS AND
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR. YET, NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE
FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST.
ALSO OF NOTE ON WATER VAPOR IS A LOW LIFTING IN FROM THE LOWER-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH ATOP A SOUTHEAST
US RIDGE. THESE LATE-MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR A LITTLE OVER
ZEALOUS WITH THE START TIME OF RAIN FRIDAY WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER
HREF MEMBERS. ADDITIONALLY, CROSS SECTIONS FAVORS A SLOWER ONSET DUE
TO DRY AIR, THUS, THE ARRIVAL TIME FOR SHOWERS HAS SLOWED FOR
FRIDAY. AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND HIGH PRESSURE NOW
DISPLACED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR NEAR 25 KNOTS.
THIS LOW LINGERS IN THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
IS KEYING IN ON HEAVY RAIN FROM THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS LOW ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MOISTURE LAYER THOUGH THE
COLUMN WITH A WARM CLOUD LAYER OF ALMOST 12K FEET, WEAK FLOW, AND
PWATS THAT EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THESE ARE INGREDIENTS FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. CAN'T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST OF US 24 ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE, USHERED ALONG BY THE DISPLACED MID-LATITUDE JET,
ARRIVES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER TO FOLLOW TUESDAY. A SHARP TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THEREAFTER WILL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER RISK IN THE MIDWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, AT FWA SOME HAZE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 22Z THU. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT KSBN THIS EVENING AFTER 23Z THU
AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR KFWA BECOMING SOUTHERLY AFTER
01Z FRI. CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED T-STORM (LOW CONFIDENCE IN TS) AT KSBN
BETWEEN 23-02Z FRI.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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