001
FXUS63 KIWX 122314
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
714 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN INCREASING CHANCE (40% TO 70%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S OR NEAR 80 THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
THE MID-LATITUATDE JET IS DISPLACED POLEWARD, ALONG THE NORTHERN US
BORDER, AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT IS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MI. THIS COULD STILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. A SECONDARY AREA
OF INTEREST FOR A POP-UP STORM WOULD BE ON THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE
THAT IS SLOWLY PUSHING WESTWARD INTO WAUSEON, OH. CONFIDENCE IN A
STORM OCCURRING IS LOW PRIMARILY DUE TO WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS AND
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR. YET, NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE
FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST.
ALSO OF NOTE ON WATER VAPOR IS A LOW LIFTING IN FROM THE LOWER-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH ATOP A SOUTHEAST
US RIDGE. THESE LATE-MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR A LITTLE OVER
ZEALOUS WITH THE START TIME OF RAIN FRIDAY WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER
HREF MEMBERS. ADDITIONALLY, CROSS SECTIONS FAVORS A SLOWER ONSET DUE
TO DRY AIR, THUS, THE ARRIVAL TIME FOR SHOWERS HAS SLOWED FOR
FRIDAY. AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND HIGH PRESSURE NOW
DISPLACED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR NEAR 25 KNOTS.
THIS LOW LINGERS IN THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
IS KEYING IN ON HEAVY RAIN FROM THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS LOW ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MOISTURE LAYER THOUGH THE
COLUMN WITH A WARM CLOUD LAYER OF ALMOST 12K FEET, WEAK FLOW, AND
PWATS THAT EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THESE ARE INGREDIENTS FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. CAN'T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST OF US 24 ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE, USHERED ALONG BY THE DISPLACED MID-LATITUDE JET,
ARRIVES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER TO FOLLOW TUESDAY. A SHARP TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THEREAFTER WILL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER RISK IN THE MIDWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS (BEFORE 02Z) AS A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF TSRA
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF
ANY STORMS, SHOULD ANY EVEN DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL RAIN/STORM
CHANCES ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA
STARTING AROUND 15-18Z FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING
BEFORE BECOMING SUSTAINED OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING TO LOWER TO MVFR
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY SCATTERED STORMS ON FRIDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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