406
FXUS63 KIWX 130615
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
215 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
- COOLER TODAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NE OK WILL SLOWLY LIFTOUT INTO KY BY
LATE SAT ALONG GENERAL SW-NE STATIONARY FNTL ZONE DOWN NEAR THE OH
RIVER. MEAGER MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH OF THERE ALONG WITH SWD TRACK
OF UPPER SYS SUGGESTS LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTN BUT
PERHAPS BECOMING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHUNTING
SOUTH SAT. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR
MUCH COOLER TEMPS.
GENERAL DRY WX FOLLOWS SUN-MON YET TYPICAL SMEAR OF LOW CHC BLENDED
POPS NOTED GIVEN DIFFERENCES ALOFT IN MED RANGE HANDLING OF A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN US THAT
SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD WARMER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER DAYS
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
EAST FLOW HAD INCREASED A LITTLE WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SFC MOISTURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION RANGING FROM DEW POINTS NEAR 70 AT RCR
TO THE LOWER 40 OVER FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDING SHOWED A DRY AREA IN THE MID LEVELS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW/TROF WILL MAKE IT.
BACKED OFF A LITTLE BIT AT SBN. IT APPEARS THE HRRR IS AN
OUTLIER AND DOESN'T SEEM TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SATURATION OF
THE DRY MID LEVEL LAYER. WILL LET CATEGORICAL RAIN RIDE AT FWA
FOR NOW AND WAIT TO SEE IF MODEL AND OBS TRENDS GO ONE WAY OR
THE OTHER.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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