236
FXUS63 KIWX 142301
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
701 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE US 24
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
- DRY AND TRENDING WARMER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEST CHANCES (70%) WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2025
KIWX RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE US 24
CORRIDOR AS OF 18Z, THOUGH COVERAGE HAS LESSENED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO DIMINISHED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A
FRONTAL ZONE. SFC PORTION OF THE FRONT ALREADY BECOMING MORE ACTIVE
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON, LUCKILY FOCUSED JUST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, A MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER SOUTHERN IL WILL
DAMPEN/OPEN EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OH VALLEY. THIS
WILL NUDGE THE AFOREMENTIONED 925-850 MB TROUGH AND DEEP
MOISTURE SOUTH WITH DRIER EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW SETTLING IN FOR
ALL ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE. LACKING MIXING
LIKELY ALLOWS LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
SUNDAY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES, WITH WARMER (NEAR NORMAL) HIGH
TEMPS ON SUNDAY GIVEN SLIGHT AIR MASS MODERATION AND INSOLATION.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH IN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE AS AIR MASS
REMAINS RATHER DRY/STABLE HOWEVER WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS
LOCKED UP WEST NEAR THE MS RIVER.
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ENTER THE FORECAST BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TAKE AIM ON THE GREAT LAKES AND
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY STREAMS IN WITHIN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE AND SFC REFLECTION AROUND THE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS
(POTENTIALLY SEVERE).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2025
A QUIET, DRY 24 HOURS ARE AHEAD! CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. KSBN IS RIGHT ON THE
THRESHOLD BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS AT 2900 FT CURRENTLY,
WHILE KFWA IS SOLIDLY LOCKED INTO IFR CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WITH VFR CEILINGS
AND FEW CLOUDS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTIONS SHOULD STAY
FAIRLY CONSTANT OUT OF THE EAST- NORTHEAST OVER THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF TO AROUND 5KTS OR SO AFTER
SUNSET.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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