617
FXUS63 KIWX 151051
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
651 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY TODAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.
- WARMING UP THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. BECOMING INCREASINGLY
HUMID AS WELL WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 90 DEGREES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE THURSDAY, INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID ONCE
AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE SLOW-MOVING STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS EXITED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL BUILD IN THE COMING DAYS, BRINGING
TRANQUIL, DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO DECREASE, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAPPEN SLOWLY
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY IS AHEAD FOR FATHER'S DAY! HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR DAY ON MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING
MORE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID
60S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF UP
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING
FOR HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO FURTHER INCREASE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WHICH WILL FEEL VERY TROPICAL. HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BOTH DAYS. AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UP OF MICHIGAN AND INTO
ONTARIO, A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY,
THIS WILL SPARK CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH WILL
BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS TIME,
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IF
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WEDNESDAY OR ONE ROUND
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOULD THERE BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS,
ANYTHING THAT COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY DAMPEN
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES LATER ON IN THE DAY. THE ENVIRONMENT
DOES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH ADEQUATE
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH.
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY THURSDAY POST
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE RELIEF IS SHORT LIVED AS THE FIRST HEAT
WAVE OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE STARTING NEXT WEEKEND. LONG RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN INTENSE, DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
WILL SETUP BY THE WEEKEND (JUNE 21-22) ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S EACH DAY
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, WITH HEAT
INDICES NEARING 100 DEGREES. UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THERE WILL
BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT RELIEF WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER THE OHIO RIVER NORTHWEST OF CRW AND WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST. SOME SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST IN THE VICINITY OF AOH WEST TO THE INDIANA BORDER.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTHEAST OF FWA. VFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT FWA. IN THE BIG PICTURE, THERE WAS A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A
VERY LONG TRAJECTORY OF EAST WINDS. THIS NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
WILL EXTEND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR UNDER 10 KNOTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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