024
FXUS63 KIWX 260530
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
130 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDICES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE 90 TO 100, WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30.
- NEAR RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE INDIANA-MICHIGAN
STATELINE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FIELD OF
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO. WHILE THERE IS A LACK OF SHEAR, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 2500+ J/KG WILL FUEL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS HAVE ALREADY
INITIATED IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF 2 PM ET, AND COVERAGE SHOULD
EXPAND ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE 'CAPPED' (STABLE) OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY SO EXPECT THE
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TO BE GREATER ALONG AND EAST OF US 31.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND POSSIBILITY FOR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTION, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE;
SPC HAS OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. ALONGSIDE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, STORMS COULD BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM ET TODAY,
ALTHOUGH STORMS (AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES) MAY BRING
TEMPORARY COOLING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ADDITIONAL HEAT
HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE HOT AND
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST. IF YOU CONSIDER HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO BE A REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT, THEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS
MAY SEEM 'COOLER'. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WHILE IT WON'T BE
AS HOT AS WHAT WE EXPERIENCED WHEN THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING WAS
IN EFFECT EARLIER IN THE WEEK, WITH SUCH MUGGY, UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT, THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STAY COOL AND STAY HYDRATED!
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT THIS WEEK AND LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT IS
POSSIBLE WE GET A REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT AND TEMPERATURES DROP BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. ADDITIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
A STATIONARY FRONT IS NOTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS STATIONARY FRONT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LATE-
DAY POP-UP STORMS. THERE WAS A SURPRISING DEARTH OF STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH DAMPENS CONFIDENCE IN HOW TODAY WILL
PLAY OUT. THERE IS A STRENGTHENING 850-MB JET LATE TODAY ACROSS
IL WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORMS
SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST IN. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED YET AGAIN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...BROWN
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