871
FXUS63 KIWX 271623
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1223 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100
DEGREES. AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND CLOUDS COULD LIMIT OVERALL
DURATION OF IMPACTS.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (60-80%)
TODAY, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE EXPECTED (60-80% CHANCE) AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR, SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS (AS
FAR AS CAPE/SHEAR GOES) WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
TODAY LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY. FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS, HOWEVER,
LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY BUBBLY CONVECTION MIGHT GET GOING AT ANY
TIME ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 1145AM ALREADY SUGGESTS CU FIELD IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN THREATS - ALTHOUGH LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY SOME SMALL
HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. WITH
LARGE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED DCAPE VALUES, LOCALIZED
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. BY
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE "COOLED" DOWN SLIGHTLY INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S. RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA HAS BACKED OFF A BIT, SO WE MAY HAVE A RELATIVELY DRY
SATURDAY AFTER ALL.
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY. HOWEVER, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TROUGHINESS
RETURNING TO ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL COOL US DOWN
A LITTLE BIT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF JULY DAYS, ESPECIALLY AFTER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION ON
MONDAY. HOPEFULLY THE RETURN OF DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 60S
COMPARED TO THE 70S WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING WILL BE A WELCOME
RELIEF.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FESTER EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT ACCORDING TO WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THUS, A VFR SHOWER WAS ADDED TO KFWA THIS
MORNING. THESE CELLS OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS HAVE HAD VERY SHORT
LIFE CYCLES, BUT NONETHELESS, THE UPTICK IN ACTIVITY HAS ALLOWED
FOR -SHRA TO BE INTRODUCED.
NO CHANGES TO THE -TSRA FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE COULD
BE ISOLATED WHICH DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN STORMS OCCURRING AT
THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY AT KSBN WHERE AS STATED PREVIOUSLY,
IT IS PLAUSIBLE STORMS DEVELOP EAST OF KSBN. LOW CONFIDENCE
THERE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT KFWA CAN SEE A STORM.
LASTLY, LATE IN THE PERIOD, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE IN-HOUSE BLEND
SUGGESTS A 10-20% CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT AN INCREDIBLY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WHICH MAY PRECEDE
ANY MVFR CEILING CONCERN. WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE INCOMING
SHIFT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
MI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ078>081-177-
277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NORMAN
AVIATION...BROWN
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