971
FXUS63 KIWX 280514
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
114 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS ON SUNDAY AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE
SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON MONDAY.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE EXPECTED (60-80% CHANCE) AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR, SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS (AS
FAR AS CAPE/SHEAR GOES) WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
TODAY LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY. FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS, HOWEVER,
LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY BUBBLY CONVECTION MIGHT GET GOING AT ANY
TIME ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 1145AM ALREADY SUGGESTS CU FIELD IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN THREATS - ALTHOUGH LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY SOME SMALL
HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. WITH
LARGE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED DCAPE VALUES, LOCALIZED
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. BY
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE "COOLED" DOWN SLIGHTLY INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S. RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA HAS BACKED OFF A BIT, SO WE MAY HAVE A RELATIVELY DRY
SATURDAY AFTER ALL.
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY. HOWEVER, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TROUGHINESS
RETURNING TO ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL COOL US DOWN
A LITTLE BIT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF JULY DAYS, ESPECIALLY AFTER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION ON
MONDAY. HOPEFULLY THE RETURN OF DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 60S
COMPARED TO THE 70S WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING WILL BE A WELCOME
RELIEF.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KSBN (AS NOTED BY THE DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S). THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP EAST AND SOUTH
EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN A VEERING WIND AT KFWA. HIGH PRESSURE
OTHERWISE TODAY WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NORMAN
AVIATION...BROWN
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