676
FXUS63 KIWX 290521
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
121 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY WARMER AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY HUMID ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
- RAIN/STORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- DRY, WARM, AND LESS HUMID BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
WE FINALLY HAVE SOME REPRIEVE FROM THE WEEK-LONG HEATWAVE! A 'COOL'
FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AND IN ITS WAKE, NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE PUSHING IN DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
HIGHS TO TOP OUT NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH THE
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN, EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE THIS EVENING
AND LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY, SHALLOW
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP.
TOMORROW, WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WAA
RAMPING UP, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
LAG UNTIL MONDAY, SO WHILE IT WON'T BE AS OPPRESSIVELY HUMID AS
THIS PAST WEEK, DEWPOINTS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO NEAR 70
DEGREES TOMORROW. IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID, BUT HEAT INDICES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD, (ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US 24, BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW
(20% OR LESS)).
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS IN THE NEXT WEEK ARRIVE ON MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PIVOT THROUGH AND AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS OUR AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL YIELD
~2500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE. IT'S POSSIBLE WE GET ONE OR TWO ROUNDS
OF STORMS MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE BEST ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. STORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY LATE MORNING/
AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH, BUT
MORE STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING WITH THE BETTER AXIS
OF LIFT/SHEAR AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE
WILL MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS.
JULY WILL START ON A SEASONABLE AND DRY NOTE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD IN BY MIDWEEK. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, WITH COMFORTABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL! I'M A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND HOW THE FORECAST WILL PAN
OUT; SOME LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE 4TH OF
JULY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
EXISTING TAFS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE RESULTING IN NO CHANGES WITH
THIS ISSUANCE. THERE IS STILL THE QUESTION OF 5SM BR AT KFWA.
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES THIS HOUR AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED BETWEEN KFWA AND KMIE. BUFKIT
ALGORITHMS FAVOR FOG BUT THE DEPICTED SOUNDING SHOWS AN
INCREDIBLY SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE AND VERY WEAK INVERSION.
OVERALL, NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MODIFY THE EXISTING TEMPO.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...BROWN
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