109  
FXUS63 KIWX 290813  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
413 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT  
INDICIES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.  
 
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THROUGH MONDAY, FOCUSED  
MAINLY ON MID MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY EVENING. LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.  
 
- SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 80S DOMINATE MUCH OF THE UPCOMING  
WEEK, WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
 
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EDGE BACK NORTH TODAY, ALLOWING FOR  
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EVEN ALONG THE  
LAKESHORE AREAS OF LK MI. 70+ DEWPOINTS ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY AND  
WILL SLOWLY EDGE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO  
INCREASE, BUT TRIGGERS WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH ANY MINIMAL CHANCES  
FOR A POP UP SHOWER/STORMS CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF US-24 (INTO  
THE 70+ DEWPOINTS) AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS OF LAPORTE  
COUNTY AS A WEAK LAKE BREEZE MAY FORM AND HUG THE COAST. MAINTAINED  
A SLGT CHC POP IN FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT SUSPECT  
THIS MAY EVEN BE OVERDONE. LULL IN CHANCES OCCURS MOST, IF NOT ALL  
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR WIDELY  
SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY MORNING AS INSTABILITY  
INCREASES FROM MORE WIDESPREAD 70 DEWPOINTS. BETTER CHANCES  
ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING, BUT LACK OF DEFINED  
TRIGGER AREAS STILL EXISTS BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVES  
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL ATMOSPHERE WILL BE  
SIMILAR TO END OF LAST WEEK WITH MORE OF A PULSE NATURE TO  
STORMS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED ORGANIZATION AS BEST SHEAR  
AND DYNAMICS LAG THE COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED IN PAST  
DISCUSSIONS, MODEL BLEND HAS BEEN EXTREMELY OVERDONE WITH POPS  
MONDAY AFTERNOON (80-95%) WITH ABOVE CONCERNS WARRANTED A  
CONSENSUS TO CAP POPS AT LIKELY. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE SOME  
LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS (SPC DY2 MARGINAL RISK-  
LEVEL 1 OF 5) MAINTAINED, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN APPEARS A  
GREATER THREAT WITH PWATS 1.75" TO OVER 2" AND A RATHER WEAK  
OVERALL FLOW.  
 
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH BY 6Z TUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
INTO FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOWER  
HUMIDITY. DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE FOR THE  
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES, BUT LACK OF STRONG  
TRIGGERS OR DYNAMICS SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
 
EXISTING TAFS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE RESULTING IN NO CHANGES WITH  
THIS ISSUANCE. THERE IS STILL THE QUESTION OF 5SM BR AT KFWA.  
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES THIS HOUR AND THE  
STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED BETWEEN KFWA AND KMIE. BUFKIT  
ALGORITHMS FAVOR FOG BUT THE DEPICTED SOUNDING SHOWS AN  
INCREDIBLY SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE AND VERY WEAK INVERSION.  
OVERALL, NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MODIFY THE EXISTING TEMPO.  
 
 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IN...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...FISHER  
AVIATION...BROWN  
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